FLI can predict incident CVD. However, the predictability of AMI using FLI is subject to interactions of metabolic factors. Individuals with FLI in the moderate to high category should be evaluated and monitored for subclinical or overt cardiovascular (including coronary) disease.

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ObjectiveFatty liver disease (FLD) is increasingly recognised as a predictor of cardiometabolic risk. Our objective was to examine if metabolic syndrome (MS) status affects the association of FLD with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) in middle-aged men.DesignProspective epidemiological study.SettingUniversity affiliated research centre in Kuopio, Eastern Finland.ParticipantsOur subjects were 1792 Finnish men without diabetes at baseline in the KuopioIschaemicHeart Disease Risk Factor Study cohort.Outcome measureUsing fatty liver index (FLI), the association of baseline FLD with incident T2D was analysed in multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, considering their MS statuses. The main models were adjusted for constitutional factors, lifestyle factors, biomarkers of inflammation and for high (FLI ≥60) versus low (FLI <30) FLI categories.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up of 19 years, 375 incident cases of T2D were recorded. In the full model, the HR (HR (95% CI)) for T2D was 3.68 (2.80 to 4.82). The association was attenuated, but maintained, with further adjustment for metabolic factors. When MS status was adjusted for in place of metabolic factors, the HRs (95% CIs) were 2.63 (1.92 to 3.59) for FLI ≥60 and 1.77 (1.35 to 2.31) for MS.In MS-stratified analysis, FLI predicted T2D only among persons without MS. In unstratified analysis with subjects categorised by FLI-MS, persons with FLI ≥60 without MS had increased risk for T2D (HR=3.19 (2.26 to 4.52)) compared with persons with FLI <30 without MS. Persons with FLI <30 and MS had greater risk (HR=4.31 (2.15 to 8.61)) and persons with both FLI ≥60 and MS had the greatest risk (HR=4.66 (3.42 to 6.35)).ConclusionGenerally, FLD (FLI ≥60) predicts T2D. It specifically predicted T2D among men without MS but not among men with MS, for whom MS alone already increases the risk. Both FLI and MS can complement each other in screening and surveillance for persons with increased T2D risk.

ObjectiveFatty liver disease (FLD), a global epidemic, is also a predictor of cardiometabolic disease (CMD) (type 2 diabetes or cardiovascular disease). Our objective was to examine whether progressive FLD, as assessed by fatty liver index (FLI), predicts increasing future CMD risk compared with relatively stable FLD, among middle-aged men.DesignProspective epidemiological study.SettingUniversity affiliated research centre in Kuopio, Eastern Finland.ParticipantsOur subjects were 501 men without CMD during the initial 4-year follow-up in the Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study cohort.Outcome measureOver the initial 4-year follow-up, 135 men (26.9%) had a significant (≥10) FLI increase. The association of 4-year FLI increase with incident CMD was analysed in multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models, adjusting for baseline constitutional and lifestyle factors (model 1) and, in addition, metabolic and inflammation biomarker factors (model 2).ResultsDuring a mean follow-up of 15 years, 301 new CMD cases occurred. We used subjects with low baseline FLI and no significant 4-year FLI increase as the reference. For subjects with intermediate baseline FLI and significant 4-year FLI increase, the HRs and 95% CIs for incident CMD in model 1 (2.13 (1.45 to 3.13)) and model 2 (1.73 (1.13 to 2.66)) exceeded values for subjects with similar baseline FLI without a significant 4-year change (HRs (95% CIs) were 1.36 (0.94 to 1.97) for model 1 and 1.18 (0.81 to 1.70) for model 2). They approached HRs (95% CI) for subjects who maintained high FLI over the 4 years (HRs (95% CIs) were 2.18 (1.54 to 3.10) in model 1 and 1.85 (1.21 to 2.82) in model 2).ConclusionPersons with significant FLI increase are likely with increasing CMD risk. Such persons should be evaluated for progressive FLD and CMD and managed to reduce CMD risk.