We investigate pre-merger coherent radio emission from neutron star mergers arising due to the magnetospheric interaction between compact objects. We consider two plausible radiation mechanisms, and show that if one neutron star has a surface magnetic field Bs ≥ 1012G, coherent millisecond radio bursts with characteristic temporal morphology and inclination angle dependence are observable to Gpc distances with next-generation radio facilities. We explore multi-messenger and multi-wavelength methods of identification of a NS merger origin of radio bursts, such as in fast radio burst surveys, triggered observations of gamma-ray bursts and gravitational wave events, and optical/radio follow-up of fast radio bursts in search of kilonova and radio afterglow emission. We present our findings for current and future observing facilities, and make recommendations for verifying or constraining the model.
Solar flares create adverse space weather impacting space- and Earth-based technologies. However, the difficulty of forecasting flares, and by extension severe space weather, is accentuated by the lack of any unique flare trigger or a single physical pathway. Studies indicate that multiple physical properties contribute to active region flare potential, compounding the challenge. Recent developments in machine learning (ML) have enabled analysis of higher-dimensional data leading to increasingly better flare forecasting techniques. However, consensus on high-performing flare predictors remains elusive. In the most comprehensive study to date, we conduct a comparative analysis of four popular ML techniques (k nearest neighbors, logistic regression, random forest classifier, and support vector machine) by training these on magnetic parameters obtained from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory for the entirety of solar cycle 24. We demonstrate that the logistic regression and support vector machine algorithms perform extremely well in forecasting active region flaring potential. The logistic regression algorithm returns the highest true skill score of 0.967 ± 0.018, possibly the highest classification performance achieved with any strictly parametric study. From a comparative assessment, we establish that magnetic properties like total current helicity, total vertical current density, total unsigned flux, R_VALUE, and total absolute twist are the top-performing flare indicators. We also introduce and analyze two new performance metrics, namely, severe and clear space weather indicators. Our analysis constrains the most successful ML algorithms and identifies physical parameters that contribute most to active region flare productivity.
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