Recent critical analyses of global land grabs have variously invoked global capitalism and neocolonialism to account for this trend. One line of inquiry approaches land grabs as instances of “primitive accumulation of capital” whereby lands in the Global South are “enclosed” and brought within the ambit of global capitalism. Another perspective invokes the history of Anglo‐American colonialism for critiquing the developmentalist discourse that depicts Africa as the “last frontier” to be tamed by the techno‐industrial civilization of the North. This essay integrates these two perspectives by elaborating capitalism as an irreducibly colonial formation with global inceptions. I begin with a discussion of “primitive accumulation” and, counter to many, question the suitability of “enclosure” for interpreting land grabs. The second section delves into the theoretical origins of primitive accumulation, proposing to situate it in a global and colonial genealogy of capitalism. A final section charts the theoretical and historical contours of this global genealogy and arrives at a more capacious reconceptualization of primitive accumulation. I conclude by reflecting on the implications of contemporary land grabs for in situ displacement, the fungibility of land, and new enclosures in the contemporary reconfiguration of global value chains.

This paper evaluates out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting with Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Taylor rule fundamentals for 9 OECD countries vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar over the period from 1973:Q1 to 2009:Q1 at short and long horizons. In contrast with previous work, which reports "forecasts" using revised data, I construct a quarterly real-time dataset that incorporates only the information available to market participants when the forecasts are made. Using bootstrapped outof-sample test statistics, the exchange rate model with Taylor rule fundamentals performs better at the one-quarter horizon and panel estimation is not able to improve its performance. The PPP model, however, forecasts better at the 16-quarter horizon and its performance increases in panel framework. The results are in accord with previous research on long-run PPP and Taylor rule models.A common problem with the papers discussed above is their reliance on ex-post revised data for the forecasting analysis. Although it seems obvious that out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting should be evaluated using real-time data, which reflects information available to market participants, it is still very rare in the exchange rate literature. Almost all existing studies on exchange rate forecasting exploit revised data which contains future information, due to revisions and additions of new data, that is not available to either policymakers or market participants. Out-of-sample forecast evaluations based on ex-post revised data yield misleading inference about the exchange rate models, and information problems of market agents are not accounted in the analysis. Meese and Rogoff (1983a) use both ex-post revised data and actual realized values of future explanatory variables to test the forecasting ability of structural models. As Rossi (2005) emphasizes, to forecast economic variables which are driven by persistent and permanent shocks, the econometrician might measure agent's probability distribution poorly by using actual realized values of future explanatory variables.To forecast exchange rates, which are primarily driven by expectations, real-time data would be more advantageous due to capturing the information set of market participants as closely as possible in contrast to ex-post revised data and actual realized values of future explanatory variables.The first paper to use real-time data to evaluate nominal exchange rate predictability is Faust, Rogers and Wright (2003). Examining the predictive ability of Mark's (1995) monetary model using real-time data for Japan, Germany, Switzerland and Canada vis-à-vis the U.S, they report that the models consistently perform better using real-time data than fully revised data. However, none of the models perform better than the random walk model. More recently, Molodtsova, Papell (2008, 2011) find evidence of predictability with Taylor rule fundamentals using real-time data for the Deutschmark/dollar and Euro/dollar exchange rates. Molodtsova, Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, and Papell (2008) find evidence of out-...

We examine rationality, forecasting accuracy, and economic value of the survey-based exchange rate forecasts for 10 developed and 23 developing countries at the 3-, 12-, and 24-month horizons. Using the data from two surveys for the period from 2004 to 2012, we find strong evidence that the forecasts for developing countries are biased at all forecast horizons. For developed countries, forecasts are strongly biased at the 3-month horizon, the bias decreases at the 12-month horizon, and increases again at the 24-month horizon. Based on the magnitude of the forecast errors and the direction of change, long-term forecasts are more accurate than short-term forecasts. Economic evaluation of the forecasts indicates that the forecasters are successful at generating positive economic profits, and economic gains of the forecasts for developed countries improve with the forecast horizon.

This chapter constructs an analytic framework for reconstructing the relationship between liberalism and empire through the optic of political economy. Extant studies of liberalism and empire tend to restrict the analysis to the explication of liberal texts in imperial contexts without explicitly theorizing the imperial contexts in question. To address this lacuna, the chapter elaborates the notion of “colonial capitalism” as a contextual theory and a hermeneutic key for interpreting the works of John Locke, Edmund Burke, and Edward G. Wakefield. Drawing on critical political economy, imperial social and economic history, and postcolonial theory, “colonial capitalism” captures the heterogeneous and globally networked property structures, exchange systems, and labor regimes that constituted Britain’s imperial economy. Against this background, it highlights the “dilemmas of liberalism” that materialized in the efforts to reconcile the peaceful, commercial, British self-imaginations and the coercive economic practices the Britons undertook in their imperial possessions.