Koopman operator theory shows how nonlinear dynamical systems can be represented as an infinite-dimensional, linear operator acting on a Hilbert space of observables of the system. However, determining the relevant modes and eigenvalues of this infinite-dimensional operator can be difficult. The extended dynamic mode decomposition (EDMD) is one such method for generating approximations to Koopman spectra and modes, but the EDMD method faces its own set of challenges due to the need of user defined observables. To address this issue, we explore the use of autoencoder networks to simultaneously find optimal families of observables, which also generate both accurate embeddings of the flow into a space of observables and submersions of the observables back into flow coordinates. This network results in a global transformation of the flow and affords future state prediction via the EDMD and the decoder network. We call this method the deep learning dynamic mode decomposition (DLDMD). The method is tested on canonical nonlinear data sets and is shown to produce results that outperform a standard DMD approach and enable data-driven prediction where the standard DMD fails.

Understanding how coronal structure propagates and evolves from the Sun and into the heliosphere has been thoroughly explored using sophisticated MHD models. From these, we have a reasonably good working understanding of the dynamical processes that shape the formation and evolution of stream interaction regions and rarefactions, including their locations, orientations, and structure. However, given the technical expertize required to produce, maintain, and run global MHD models, their use has been relatively restricted. In this study, we refine a simple Heliospheric eXtrapolation Technique (HUX) to include not only forward mapping from the Sun to 1 AU (or elsewhere), but backward mapping toward the Sun. We demonstrate that this technique can provide substantially more accurate mappings than the standard, and often applied “ballistic” approximation. We also use machine learning (ML) methods to explore whether the HUX approximation to the momentum equation can be refined without loss of simplicity, finding that it likely provides the optimum balance. We suggest that HUX can be used, in conjunction with coronal models (PFSS or MHD) to more accurately connect measurements made at 1 AU, Stereo-A, Parker Solar Probe, and Solar Orbiter with their solar sources. In particular, the HUX technique: 1) provides a substantial improvement over the “ballistic” approximation for connecting to the source longitude of streams; 2) is almost as accurate, but considerably easier to implement than MHD models; and 3) can be applied as a general tool to magnetically connect different regions of the inner heliosphere together, as well as providing a simple 3-D reconstruction.

The large-scale structure and evolution of the solar wind are typically reproduced with reasonable fidelity using three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. However, such models are difficult to implement by the scientific community in general, because they require technical expertise and significant computational resources. Previously, we demonstrated how a simplified two-dimensional surrogate solar wind model, the Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation (HUX) technique, could reconstruct MHD solutions in the ecliptic plane, given either an inner (or outer) radial boundary condition. Here, we further develop the HUX technique and apply it to a range of solar wind in-situ datasets. Specifically, we: (1) provide a thorough mathematical analysis of the underlying reduced momentum equation describing the solar wind. (2) Propose flux-limiter numerical schemes that more accurately capture stream interaction regions and rarefaction regions; and (3) Apply the HUX technique to a variety of in-situ spacecraft measurements, focusing on Helios (1 and 2) and near-Earth spacecraft (Wind/ACE), for which near-latitudinal alignments occurred. We suggest that this refined HUX tool can be used for both retrospective studies as well as real-time predictions to better understand and forecast the large-scale structure and origin of the solar wind.

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The ambient solar wind plays a significant role in propagating interplanetary coronal mass ejections and is an important driver of space weather geomagnetic storms. A computationally efficient and widely used method to predict the ambient solar wind radial velocity near Earth involves coupling three models: Potential Field Source Surface, Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA), and Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation. However, the model chain has eleven uncertain parameters that are mainly non-physical due to empirical relations and simplified physics assumptions. We, therefore, propose a comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework that is able to successfully quantify and reduce parametric uncertainties in the model chain. The UQ framework utilizes variance-based global sensitivity analysis followed by Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo to learn the posterior densities of the most influential parameters. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the five most influential parameters are all WSA parameters. Additionally, we show that the posterior densities of such influential parameters vary greatly from one Carrington rotation to the next. The influential parameters are trying to overcompensate for the missing physics in the model chain, highlighting the need to enhance the robustness of the model chain to the choice of WSA parameters. The ensemble predictions generated from the learned posterior densities significantly reduce the uncertainty in solar wind velocity predictions near Earth.