Parameterisation of a mechanistic population model with data from a 51-year study on great tits suggests that phenotypic plasticity is crucial for viability of bird populations under current climate change scenarios.

The explanation for extra-pair mating in female birds remains poorly understood and contentious [1-7]. Several leading hypotheses propose that females benefit indirectly by enhancing the genetic quality of their offspring, through good genes or genetic compatibility effects [1, 8, 9]. Supporting this idea, recent studies have identified a range of fitness-related traits for which extra-pair offspring (EPO) are superior to their within-pair (WP) half-siblings [10-21]. However, such performance differences may result from nongenetic maternal effects if EPO are positioned earlier in the laying order and benefit from the advantages of earlier hatching [22, 23]. Here we show that EPO are larger, heavier, and more likely to fledge than their WP half-siblings in a population of blue tits, Cyanistes caeruleus. However, extra-pair paternity declined markedly with laying order, resulting in EPO generally hatching earlier. After correcting for variation in hatch time, none of the observed disparities between EPO and their WP half-siblings remained significant. These findings indicate that phenotypic comparisons between maternal half-siblings must consider potential hatching-order effects and suggest that the evidence for genetic benefits from extra-pair copulation may be less compelling than currently accepted. Moreover, the overrepresentation of EPO early in the laying order may help explain female extra-pair mating.

The conditions under which individuals are reared vary and sensitivity of offspring to such variation is often sex-dependent. Parental age is one important natal condition with consequences for aspects of offspring fitness, but reports are mostly limited to short-term fitness consequences and do not take into account offspring sex. Here we used individual-based data from a large colony of a long-lived seabird, the common tern Sterna hirundo, to investigate longitudinal long-term fitness consequences of parental age in relation to both offspring and parental sex. We found that recruited daughters from older mothers suffered from reduced annual reproductive success. Recruited sons from older fathers were found to suffer from reduced life span. Both effects translated to reductions in offspring lifetime reproductive success. Besides revealing novel sex-specific pathways of transgenerational parental age effects on offspring fitness, which inspire studies of potential underlying mechanisms, our analyses show that reproductive senescence is only observed in the common tern when including transgenerational age effects. In general, our study shows that estimates of selective pressures underlying the evolution of senescence, as well as processes such as age-dependent mate choice and sex allocation, will depend on whether causal transgenerational effects exist and are taken into account.

The relationship between growth and age-specific telomere length, as a proxy of somatic state, is increasingly investigated, but observed patterns vary and a predictive framework is lacking. We outline expectations based on the assumption that telomere maintenance is costly and argue that individual heterogeneity in resource acquisition is predicted to lead to positive covariance between growth and telomere length. However, canalization of resource allocation to the trait with a larger effect on fitness, rendering that trait relatively invariant, can cause the absence of covariance. In a case study of common tern (Sterna hirundo) chicks, in which hatching order is the main determinant of variation in resource acquisition within broods, we find that body mass, but not telomere length or attrition, varies with hatching order. Moreover, body mass and growth positively predict survival to fledging, whereas telomere length and attrition do not. Using a novel statistical method to quantify standardized variance in plasticity, we estimate between-individual variation in telomere attrition to be only 12% of that of growth. Consistent with the relative invariance of telomere attrition, we find no correlation between age-specific body mass or growth and telomere attrition. We suggest that common tern chicks prioritize investment in long-term somatic state (as indicated by canalization of telomere maintenance) over immediate survival benefits of growth as part of an efficient brood reduction strategy that benefits the parents. As such, interspecific variation in the growth-telomere length relationship may be explained by the extent to which parents benefit from rapid mortality of excess offspring.