The novel coronavirus has unsettled many nations and has created severe uncertainty in its spread. In this paper, we present the performance of ensemble models and single forecast models in the projection of COVID-19 confirmed cases in nine countries. Data consisting of two (2) health indicators (new COVID-19 and cumulative COVID-19 confirmed cases) were collated on May 10, 2020 from the Humanitarian Data Exchange (HDX). Forecasting models with the minimum Mean Square Error (MSE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) were selected. Our findings showed that ETS (A, N, N) was the best model fit for China, Spain, South Korea and Ghana in terms of single COVID-19 confirmed cases. On the other hand, INGARCH (1, 1) was the best fit model for the remaining countries. Regarding cumulative COVID-19 confirmed cases, INGARCH (1, 1) was fit for each of the nine countries. Again, we found that single forecasting models outperform hybrid models when the number of data points does not meet a certain threshold, and when the data has no seasonality; suggesting further that hybrid forecast models perform efficiently in complex time series dataset. Results from the 10 days forecast indicate that for most countries, with the exception of Ghana and India, new covid-19 confirmed cases will drop. The study suggest for future works to expand the training dataset by augmenting additional data onto the available data and then apply hybrid forecasting models to the dataset.
Cooperative learning strategies have the tendency to enhance the academic strength of learners. In this paper, the independent variable, type of cooperative strategy, included three levels: Jig-Saw, Think-Pair-Share, and Brainstorming. The dependent variable was the students' individual mathematics achievement scores and the covariate was the students' group score when the cooperative strategy was used. A preliminary analysis that sought to assess the homogeneity-of-regression assumption indicated that the relationship between the covariate and the dependent variable did not differ significantly as a function of the independent variable, F (2, 81) =.045, p =.956. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the three covariates to one score factor for ANCOVA procedure. A significant relationship was found between academic achievement score with respect to a cooperative strategy used and the individual academic achievement scores, F (2, 83) = 249.030, p <. 05. About 86% of the total variance in individual mathematics achievement score was accounted for by the three levels of cooperative strategy controlling for the students' academic group scores. Jigsaw cooperative strategy (Mean: 3.4, SE: 0.068, p < 0.01) had the most impact on individual achievement in mathematics with students obtaining an average grade of B+. The findings also showed from the PCA that the mathematics achievement scores of the group treated with Jig-Saw cooperative strategy explained most (about 39%) of the total variance, followed by Think-Pair-share with the least being Brainstorming. Explained in another way, when students use Jig-saw learning strategy in Mathematics, their individual academic potentials are enhanced well than when Think-Pair-Share or Brainstorming is used. It is therefore recommended for Jig-saw strategy to be the preferred strategy for learning when mathematics teachers seek to improve deep learning and problem solving among students.
Ghana’s new Basic Education Curriculum emphasizes on ensuring that every learner benefits from the teaching and learning process. The study used the survey research design aimed at determining the predictive power with which use of Scaffolding, Differentiated techniques and Inclusion approaches predict diagnostic assessment. The features, strategies and principles underpinning instructional Scaffolding, Differentiation and Inclusion approaches as well as Diagnostic assessment formed the basis of the construction of 14 text items used in the questionnaire in this study. The study involved a population of 132 basic school teachers from sixteen (16) regions of Ghana. A sample size of 100 was computed at 95% confidence interval and randomly selected from the population. The reliability of the items was assessed with Cronbach's Alpha (0.976). Bartlett's test of sphericity was statistically significant (P< 0.01, Chi-square =3077.529, DF=91), and the KMO statistic was 0.924. All multiple extraction approaches such as Parallel analysis, Kaiser’s criterion and Scree test suggested retaining two factors. Varimax rotated matrix was used to generate factor scores for modeling the relationships between diagnostic assessment and inclusion, differentiated techniques as well as Scaffolding using multiple linear regressions. From the results, Scaffolding (B1 = .744, B2 =.185, F= 466.442, P<0.001), Differentiated approaches (B1 = .516, B2 =.400, F=312.809, P<0.001) and Inclusion (B1 =.512, B2 =.373, F= 213.375, P<0.001) pedagogical approaches were statistically significant and positively related to diagnostic assessment. Scaffolding, Differentiated approaches and Inclusion approaches were found to have predictive power of 91%, 87% and 82% respectively. Instructional Scaffolding was found to be the most efficient predictor of diagnostic assessment. This study provides scientific evidence that the Scaffolding, Inclusion and Differentiated techniques outlined in Ghana’s new Curriculum provides sufficiently for Diagnostic assessment although it was not explicitly stated in it. It is therefore recommended for Ghana Education service to run a continuous training programme for teachers in efficient use of these techniques for effective teaching and learning.
Teachers are the pivot of Ghana’s new educational reform and their expertise in the use of the recommended assessment strategies need to be evaluated from time to time to enhance teaching and learning. This survey research approach sought to measure the use of Assessment as Learning strategy among basic school teachers in Ghana. The features, strategies and principles underpinning Assessment as Learning strategy formed the basis of the construction of 7 item likert scale with a reliability coefficient of 0.995. A sample size of 100 was computed at 95% confidence interval and randomly selected from the population. With respect to the use of Assessment as Learning strategy, significant differences were found for teaching division, teaching experience and gender. From the findings, the mean difference of 1.281 explains that class teachers demonstrated greater skills (M:3.75, SD:.436) with respect to assessing students in ways that make them reflect on their own work on regular basis through self and peer assessment, than their subject teacher counterparts(M:2.47, SD: 0.507). Also, with a mean difference of 1.526,class teachers (M: 3.59, SD: .496) exhibited higher skills of providing safe environment and support for students to take chances, than their subject teacher counterparts(M:2.06, SD: .246).Again, the absolute mean difference of 1.085 explains that teachers with at least 4 years of teaching experience (M:3.82, SD:.389)demonstrated greater skills with respect to providing for the development of independent learners than their counterparts(M:2.73, SD:0.447) with lesser years of teaching experience. Female teachers (M: 3.90, SD: .303) demonstrated greater skills with respect to providing for the development of independent learners than their male counterparts (M: 2.76, SD: 0.431)with a mean difference of 1.140.The overall performance of the teachers with regards to the Assessment as Learning strategy was found to be 57% using the grand mean as the threshold criterion. The findings provide a basis for Ghana Education Service to provide in-service professional learning training aimed at enhancing teachers’ knowledge of formative assessment with the ultimate goal of enhancing students’ learning and achievement.
Ghana’s new curriculum for the basic level places much emphasis on the need for teachers to evaluate the learner’s cumulative progress and achievement. This requirement makes it imperative to measure the competency of the teachers on the use of Assessment of Learning strategy. The study adopted a survey research approach and the features, strategies and principles under pinning Assessment of Learning strategy formed the basis of the construction of 12-itemlikert scale with a reliability coefficient of 0.98. A sample size of 100 was computed at 95% confidence interval and randomly selected from the population. With respect to this learning strategy, significant differences were found for teaching division and teaching experience. The findings indicated that with respect to providing processes that make it possible for students to demonstrate their competence and skill, the expertise of class teachers were significantly different ( from subject teachers . The mean difference of 1.256 shows that class teachers exhibited greater expertise in providing processes that make it possible for students to demonstrate their competence and skill than their subject teacher counterparts. Also, with regards to reporting students’ learning based on evidence obtained from variety of contexts and applications, the expertise of class teachers were significantly different ( from subject teachers with a mean difference of 1.710.In terms of providing range of alternative mechanisms for assessing the same outcomes, a significant difference ( was found between teachers with teaching experience of at least 4 years and those with less experience .The absolute mean difference of 1.444 is an indication that the former performed better than the latter. The findings provide the basis for Ghana Education Service to organize in-service professional learning training aimed at enhancing teachers’ knowledge of summative assessment with the ultimate goal of enhancing students’ learning and achievement. The study recommends in-service training and continuous professional development sessions for subject teachers to build their capacity in the use of Assessment of Learning strategies.
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