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Structural change, Judgement, Combined forecasts, Rational expectations, Heuristics, Experimental economics,

Experimental studies of expectation formation of subjects are predominantly limited to the prediction of one single time series despite the practical relevance of expectations in situations with multiple sources of information. In this paper, we report on an experiment in which subjects are given time series (indicators) as additional information for the judgemental forecast of a stationary time series. The quality and the number of these indicators are varied in three versions of a forecasting experiment. We explore the effects on forecasting accuracy and we test the average forecasts of the subjects for consistency with the rational expectations hypothesis. A simple heuristic is presented that explains the average forecasting behavior better than the rational expectations if indicators are presented to the subjects. It is demonstrated by a simulation study that this result is representative for the considered stationary stochastic processes. Copyright Verein für Socialpolitik and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. 2008.

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This paper combines work to use a decision support tool for sustainable economic development, while acknowledging interdependent dynamics of population density, and interferences from outside. We get new insights derived from experimental approaches: analytical models (optimal dynamic control of predator-prey models) provide optimal dynamic strategies and interventions, depending on different objective functions. Our economic experiments are able to test the applicability of these strategies, and in how far decision-makers can learn to improve decision-making by repeated applications. We aim to analyse a sustainable environment with diametrical goals to harvest as much as possible while allowing optimal population growth. We find interesting insights from those who manage the dynamic system. With the methodology of experimental economics, the experiment at hand is developed to analyse the capability of individual persons to handle a complex system, and to find an economic, stable equilibrium in a neutral setting. We have developed a most interesting simulation model, where it will turn out that prices play a less important role than availability of the goods. This aspect could become a new important aspect in economics in general and in sustainable environments especially.