BACKGROUND Radical prostatectomy reduces mortality among men with localized prostate cancer; however, important questions regarding long-term benefit remain. METHODS Between 1989 and 1999, we randomly assigned 695 men with early prostate cancer to watchful waiting or radical prostatectomy and followed them through the end of 2012. The primary end points in the Scandinavian Prostate Cancer Group Study Number 4 (SPCG-4) were death from any cause, death from prostate cancer, and the risk of metastases. Secondary end points included the initiation of androgen-deprivation therapy. RESULTS During 23.2 years of follow-up, 200 of 347 men in the surgery group and 247 of the 348 men in the watchful-waiting group died. Of the deaths, 63 in the surgery group and 99 in the watchful-waiting group were due to prostate cancer; the relative risk was 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.41 to 0.77; P = 0.001), and the absolute difference was 11.0 percentage points (95% CI, 4.5 to 17.5). The number needed to treat to prevent one death was 8. One man died after surgery in the radical-prostatectomy group. Androgen-deprivation therapy was used in fewer patients who underwent prostatectomy (a difference of 25.0 percentage points; 95% CI, 17.7 to 32.3). The benefit of surgery with respect to death from prostate cancer was largest in men younger than 65 years of age (relative risk, 0.45) and in those with intermediate-risk prostate cancer (relative risk, 0.38). However, radical pros-tatectomy was associated with a reduced risk of metastases among older men (relative risk, 0.68; P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS Extended follow-up confirmed a substantial reduction in mortality after radical prostatectomy; the number needed to treat to prevent one death continued to decrease when the treatment was modified according to age at diagnosis and tumor risk. A large proportion of long-term survivors in the watchful-waiting group have not required any palliative treatment. (Funded by the Swedish Cancer Society and others.)

The identification of the TMPRSS2:ERG fusion in prostate cancer suggests that distinct molecular subtypes may define risk for disease progression. In surgical series, TMPRSS2:ERG fusion was identified in 50% of the tumors. Here, we report on a population-based cohort of men with localized prostate cancers followed by expectant (watchful waiting) therapy with 15% (17/111) TMPRSS2:ERG fusion. We identified a statistically significant association between TMPRSS2:ERG fusion and prostate cancer specific death (cumulative incidence ratio ¼ 2.7, Po0.01, 95% confidence interval ¼ 1.3-5.8).Quantitative reverse-transcription-polymerase chain reaction demonstrated high estrogen-regulated gene (ERG) expression to be associated with TMPRSS2:ERG fusion (Po0.005). These data suggest that TMPRSS2:ERG fusion prostate cancers may have a more aggressive phenotype, possibly mediated through increased ERG expression.

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ETS gene fusions have been characterized in a majority of prostate cancers; however, the key molecular alterations in ETS-negative cancers are unclear. Here we used an outlier meta-analysis (meta-COPA) to identify SPINK1 outlier expression exclusively in a subset of ETS rearrangement-negative cancers ( approximately 10% of total cases). We validated the mutual exclusivity of SPINK1 expression and ETS fusion status, demonstrated that SPINK1 outlier expression can be detected noninvasively in urine, and observed that SPINK1 outlier expression is an independent predictor of biochemical recurrence after resection. We identified the aggressive 22RV1 cell line as a SPINK1 outlier expression model and demonstrate that SPINK1 knockdown in 22RV1 attenuates invasion, suggesting a functional role in ETS rearrangement-negative prostate cancers.