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PurposeThis paper aims to address how to systematically address vulnerability in a maritime transportation system using a formal vulnerability assessment approach, create quantitative measures of disruption risk and test the effect of mitigating measures. These quantitative data are prerequisites for cost efficiency calculations, and may be obtained without requiring excessive resources.Design/methodology/approachSupply chain simulation using heuristics‐based planning tools offers an approach to quantify the impact of disruption scenarios and mitigating measures. This is used to enrich a risk‐based approach to maritime supply chain vulnerability assessment. Monte Carlo simulation is used to simulate a stochastic nature of disruptions.FindingsThe exemplary assessment of a maritime liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation system illustrates the potential for providing quantitative data about the cost of disruptions and the effects of mitigating measures, which are foundations for more precise cost efficiency estimates.Research limitations/implicationsThis simulation was done on a simplified version of a real transportation system. For resource reasons, several simplifications were made, both with regards to modeling the transportation system and with the implementation of the formal vulnerability assessment framework. Nevertheless, the authors believe the paper serves to illustrate the approach and potential outcome.Practical implicationsPractitioners are provided with an approach to get more precise quantitative data on disruption costs and cost/efficiency of mitigating measures, providing background data for decisions on investing in reduction of supply chain vulnerability.Originality/valueThe combination of risk assessment methods and inventory routing simulation of maritime supply chain problems is a novelty. Quantifying vulnerability, effects of disruptions and effects of mitigating measures in maritime transportation systems contributes to a little‐researched area.

Maritime Transportation Systems (MTSs) are essential for world trade; it is crucial to understand how these systems may fail, to be able to maintain their capacity. In this paper, the MTS is seen as a throughput mechanism; a technical system which serves its purpose by moving goods for its dependents. Understanding which key functions and capabilities are prerequisite for the ability to move goods, the loss of which are the failure modes, allows for the creation of a 'business continuity plan' for the MTS. Through two surveys and interviews with maritime transportation industry stakeholders, it was observed that while stakeholders in the industry have a solid focus on frequent operational risks, there is a lack of awareness of vulnerabilities, as well as methods for addressing and planning for low-frequency high-impact disruption scenarios. The presented approach provides a structured set of matrices of the key functions of the MTS, allowing stakeholders to increase the system's resilience through preparing to restore this limited number of critical functions.

This chapter provides an approach to modelling and analysis of supply chain vulnerabilities due to physical and functional interdependencies in maritime transport systems. The results of the analysis are risk of supply breaches of the commodities transported by the system. The risk analysis is set into the context of development of infrastructure for maritime transport systems, where industrial shipping systems are used as an example. The risk analysis is used to balance the scale of the system's infrastructure against an assessment of the requirements and vulnerabilities of the system's dependents. The maritime transport system is here regarded as a critical infrastructure for supply of required commodities into a region.

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