Introductory Regime shifts have been documented in a variety of natural and social systems. These abrupt transitions produce dramatic shifts in the composition and functioning of social-ecological systems. Existing theory on ecosystem resilience has only considered regime shifts to be caused by changes in external conditions beyond a tipping point and therefore lacks an evolutionary perspective. In this study we show how a change in external conditions has little ecological effect and does not push the system beyond a tipping point. The change therefore does not cause an immediate regime shift, but instead triggers an evolutionary process that drives a phenotypic trait beyond a tipping point, thereby resulting after a substantial delay in a selection-induced regime shift. Our finding draws attention to the fact that regime shifts observed in the present may result from changes in the distant past and highlights the need for integrating evolutionary dynamics into the theoretical foundation for ecosystem resilience.

Anthropogenic environmental changes are altering ecological and evolutionary processes of ecosystems. The possibility that ecosystems can respond abruptly to gradual environmental change when critical thresholds are crossed (i.e. tipping points) and shift to an alternative stable state is a growing concern. Here I show that fast environmental change can trigger regime shifts before environmental stress exceeds a tipping point in evolving ecological systems. The difference in the time scales of coupled ecological and evolutionary processes makes ecosystems sensitive not only to the magnitude of environmental changes, but also to the rate at which changes are imposed. Fast evolutionary change mediated by high trait variation can reduce the sensitivity of ecosystems to the rate of environmental change and prevent the occurrence of rate-induced regime shifts. This suggests that management measures to prevent rate-induced regime shifts should focus on mitigating the effects of environmental change and protecting phenotypic diversity in ecosystems.

Migration, the recurring movement of individuals between a breeding and a non-breeding habitat, is a widespread phenomenon in the animal kingdom. Since the life cycle of migratory species involves two habitats, they are particularly vulnerable to environmental change, which may affect either of these habitats as well as the travel between them. In this study, we investigate the consequences of environmental change affecting older life history stages for the population dynamics and the individual life history of a migratory population. In particular, we use a theoretical approach to study how increased energetic cost of the breeding travel and reduced survival and food availability in the non-breeding habitat affect an anadromous fish population. These unfavorable conditions have impacts at individual and population level.First, when conditions deteriorate individuals in the breeding habitat have a higher growth rate as a consequence of reductions in spawning that reduce competition. Second, population abundance decreases, and its dynamics change from stable to oscillations with a period of four years. The oscillations are caused by the density-dependent feedback between individuals within a cohort through the food abundance in the breeding habitat, which results in alternation of a strong and a weak cohort. Our results explain how environmental change, by affecting older life history stages, has multiple consequences for other life stages and for the entire population. We discuss these results in the context of empirical data and highlight the need for mechanistic understanding of the interactions between life history and population dynamics in response to environmental change.

Migratory fish populations, like salmon, have dramatically declined for decades. Because of their extensive and energetically costly breeding migration, anadromous fish are sensitive to a variety of environmental stressors, in particular infrastructure building in freshwater streams that increases the energetic requirements of the breeding migration and food declines in the ocean. While the effects of these stressors separately are well documented, the cumulative and interactive impacts of them are poorly understood. Here, we use a bioenergetics model recently developed for fish life history to investigate the individual life history and population responses to these stressors combined. We find that food decline in the ocean can mitigate rather than exacerbate the negative effect of elevated migration costs imposed by infrastructure building in streams. This counterintuitive effect results from the highly nonlinear manner in which these stressors interact and affect the individual energetics. In particular, this effect arises from the fact that individuals growing in the ocean under higher food conditions reach larger sizes with concomitant larger migration costs but are leaner. As a consequence of their lower energy densities, they spend most of their energy reserves to transport their body upstream when migration costs are high, and little is left for reproduction, resulting in lower individual fitness. Our results highlight the need of a mechanistic understanding integrating individual energetics, life history and population dynamics to accurately assess biological consequences of environmental change. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.