Although natural terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered ∼25% of anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, the long-term sustainability of this key ecosystem service is under question. Forests have traditionally been viewed as robust carbon (C) sinks; however, extreme heat-waves, drought and wildfire have increased tree mortality, particularly in widespread semi-arid regions, which account for ∼41% of Earth's land surface. Using a set of modeling experiments, we show that California grasslands are a more resilient C sink than forests in response to 21st century changes in climate, with implications for designing climate-smart Cap and Trade offset policies. The resilience of grasslands to rising temperatures, drought and fire, coupled with the preferential banking of C to belowground sinks, helps to preserve sequestered terrestrial C and prevent it from re-entering the atmosphere. In contrast, California forests appear unable to cope with unmitigated global changes in the climate, switching from substantial C sinks to C sources by at least the mid-21st century. These results highlight the inherent risk of relying on forest C offsets in the absence of management interventions to avoid substantial fire-driven C emissions. On the other hand, since grassland environments, including tree-sparse rangelands, appear more capable of maintaining C sinks in 21st century, such ecosystems should be considered as an alternative C offset to climate-vulnerable forests. The further development of climate-smart approaches in California's carbon marketplace could serve as an example to offset programs around the world, particularly those expanding into widespread arid and semi-arid regions.

Abstract.A warming climate is altering land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon, with a potential for increased vegetation productivity as well as the mobilization of permafrost soil carbon stores. Here we investigate land-atmosphere carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) cycling through analysis of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) and its component fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) and soil carbon residence time, simulated by a set of land surface models (LSMs) over a region spanning the drainage basin of Northern Eurasia. The retrospective simulations cover the period 1960-2009 at 0.5 • resolution, which is a scale common among many global carbon and climate model simulations. Model performance benchmarks were drawn from comparisons against both observed CO 2 fluxes derived from sitebased eddy covariance measurements as well as regionalscale GPP estimates based on satellite remote-sensing data.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. M. A. Rawlins et al.: CO 2 Exchange Across Northern EurasiaThe site-based comparisons depict a tendency for overestimates in GPP and ER for several of the models, particularly at the two sites to the south. For several models the spatial pattern in GPP explains less than half the variance in the MODIS MOD17 GPP product. Across the models NEP increases by as little as 0.01 to as much as 0.79 g C m −2 yr −2 , equivalent to 3 to 340 % of the respective model means, over the analysis period. For the multimodel average the increase is 135 % of the mean from the first to last 10 years of record (1960-1969 vs. 2000-2009), with a weakening CO 2 sink over the latter decades. Vegetation net primary productivity increased by 8 to 30 % from the first to last 10 years, contributing to soil carbon storage gains. The range in regional mean NEP among the group is twice the multimodel mean, indicative of the uncertainty in CO 2 sink strength. The models simulate that inputs to the soil carbon pool exceeded losses, resulting in a net soil carbon gain amid a decrease in residence time. Our analysis points to improvements in model elements controlling vegetation productivity and soil respiration as being needed for reducing uncertainty in landatmosphere CO 2 exchange. These advances will require collection of new field data on vegetation and soil dynamics, the development of benchmarking data sets from measurements and remote-sensing observations, and investments in future model development and intercomparison studies.

Abstract. Terrestrial ecosystems of northern Eurasia are demonstrating an increasing gross primary productivity (GPP), yet few studies have provided definitive attribution for the changes. While prior studies point to increasing temperatures as the principle environmental control, influences from moisture and other factors are less clear. We assess how changes in temperature, precipitation, cloudiness, and forest fires individually contribute to changes in GPP derived from satellite data across northern Eurasia using a light-useefficiency-based model, for the period 1982-2010. We find that annual satellite-derived GPP is most sensitive to the temperature, precipitation and cloudiness of summer, which is the peak of the growing season and also the period of the year when the GPP trend is maximum. Considering the regional median, the summer temperature explains as much as 37.7 % of the variation in annual GPP, while precipitation and cloudiness explain 20.7 and 19.3 %. Warming over the period analysed, even without a sustained increase in precipitation, led to a significant positive impact on GPP for 61.7 % of the region. However, a significant negative impact on GPP was also found, for 2.4 % of the region, primarily the dryer grasslands in the south-west of the study area. For this region, precipitation positively correlates with GPP, as does cloudiness. This shows that the south-western part of northern Eurasia is relatively more vulnerable to drought than other areas. While our results further advance the notion that air temperature is the dominant environmental control for recent GPP increases across northern Eurasia, the role of precipitation and cloudiness can not be ignored.

Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles are coupled from molecular to biosphere scales, with strong feedbacks on Earth's climate system (Galloway et al., 2004;Gruber & Galloway, 2008). Carbon sequestration, which is driven by net primary production (NPP), displays symptoms of N scarcity although 78% of the atmosphere is N (Vitousek & Howarth, 1991). Since bioavailable forms of N are mobile and readily lost from ecosystems, N inputs are needed to maintain C sinks (Cleveland et al., 2013). Consequently, an emerging view proposes that efforts aimed at reducing anthropogenic N deposition (originating primarily from agricultural and industrial activities) will reduce terrestrial C sinks, thereby obfuscating climate mitigation strategies (Gu