Estimating the contribution of the forests to carbon sequestration is commonly done by applying forest growth models. Such models inherently use field observations such as leaf area index (LAI), whereas a relevant information is also available from remotely sensed images. This paper aims to improve the LAI estimated from the forest growth model [physiological principals predicting growth (3-PG)] by combining these values with the LAI derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite imagery. A Bayesian networks (BNs) approach addresses the bias in the 3-PG model and the noise of the MODIS images. A novel inference strategy within the BN has been developed in this paper to take care of the different structures of the inaccuracies in the two data sources. The BN is applied to the Speulderbos forest in The Netherlands, where the detailed data were available. This paper shows that the outputs obtained with the BN were more accurate than either the 3-PG or the MODIS estimate. It was also found that the BN is more sensitive to the variation of the LAI derived from MODIS than to the variation of the LAI 3-PG values. In this paper, we conclude that the BNs can improve the estimation of the LAI values by combining a forest growth model with satellite imagery. Index Terms-Bayesian networks (BNs), leaf area index (LAI), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), physiological principals predicting growth (3-PG) model.
A new policy, Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation in Developing Countries, is currently being discussed under the UNFCCC. This policy will necessarily involve multi-level governance and involve international, national and local level bodies in both North and South. The paper considers a number of unresolved issues relating to Reducing Emissions from Deforestation in Developing Countries and how the interests of the different levels in this governance structure will be reflected in them. It demonstrates that on several issues there is more difference in interest between different South Parties than between South and North. It also shows that recognition of traditional and local level forest governance capacities by national Parties may be an essential step not only to control deforestation and degradation, but also to provide the data that the state will need to claim carbon credits.
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