No abstract

RESUMENEn este trabajo se explora la existencia, robustez y magnitud del eventual aporte que puedan tener diversas medidas de actividad en la tarea de predecir inflación en Chile, sobre la base de algunas versiones retrospectivas (backward-looking) de curvas de Phillips estimadas tanto con datos revisados como con datos en tiempo real. Los principales resultados confirman los hallazgos de la literatura reciente a nivel internacional: el aporte predictivo de las medidas de actividad aquí consideradas es episódico, inestable y de magnitud moderada. Este precario aporte predictivo es robusto a la utilización de datos definitivos y en tiempo real.

This study uses some backward-looking versions of Phillips curves, estimated from both revised and real-time data, to explore the existence, robustness and size of the contribution that a variety of activity measures may make to the task of predicting inflation in Chile.The main results confirm the findings of the recent international literature: the predictive power of the activity measures considered here is episodic, unstable and of moderate size. This weak predictive contribution is robust to the use of final and real-time data.

In this paper we introduce a “power booster factor” for out-of-sample tests of predictability. The relevant econometric environment is one in which the econometrician wants to compare the population Mean Squared Prediction Errors (MSPE) of two models: one big nesting model, and another smaller nested model. Although our factor can be used to improve finite sample properties of several out-of-sample tests of predictability, in this paper we focus on the widely used test developed by Clark and West (2006, 2007). Our new test multiplies the Clark and West t-statistic by a factor that should be close to one under the null hypothesis that the short nested model is the true model, but that should be greater than one under the alternative hypothesis that the big nesting model is more adequate. We use Monte Carlo simulations to explore the size and power of our approach. Our simulations reveal that the new test is well sized and powerful. In particular, it tends to be less undersized and more powerful than the test by Clark and West (2006, 2007). Although most of the gains in power are associated to size improvements, we also obtain gains in size-adjusted-power. Finally we illustrate the use of our approach when evaluating the ability that an international core inflation factor has to predict core inflation in a sample of 30 OECD economies. With our “power booster factor” more rejections of the null hypothesis are obtained, indicating a strong influence of global inflation in a selected group of these OECD countries.

We explore the impact of exchange rate interventions on inflation expectations and exchange rates in Chile. We consider two episodes of central bank interventions during the sample period 2007-2012. Our analysis indicate that interventions did have an impact on daily exchange rate returns. In terms of inflation expectations, we find that the intervention program carried out in 2008 had a significant, but relatively short-lived, impact on the distribution of inflation expectations at long horizons. In contrast, the intervention carried out in 2011 shows no relevant impact on the distribution of inflation expectations in Chile.