ThyroSeq v2 claims high positive (PPV) and negative (NPV) predictive values in a wide range of pretest risks of malignancy in indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITNs) (categories B-III and B-IV of the Bethesda system). We evaluated ThyroSeq v2 performance in a cohort of patients with ITNs seen at our Academic Cancer Center from September 2014 to April 2016, in light of the new diagnostic criteria for non-invasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP). Our study included 182 patients (76% female) with 190 ITNs consecutively tested with ThyroSeq v2. Patient treatment followed our institutional thyroid nodule clinical pathway. Histologies of nodules with follicular variant papillary thyroid carcinoma or NIFTP diagnoses were reviewed, with reviewers blinded to molecular results. ThyroSeq v2 performance was calculated in nodules with histological confirmation. We identified a mutation in 24% (45) of the nodules. Mutations in were the most prevalent (21), but the positive predictive value of this mutation was much lower (31%) than that in prior reports. In 102 resected ITNs, ThyroSeq v2 performance was as follows: sensitivity 70% (46-88), specificity 77% (66-85), PPV 42% (25-61) and NPV 91% (82-97). The performance in B-IV nodules was significantly better than that in B-III nodules (area under the curve 0.84 vs 0.57, respectively; = 0.03), where it was uninformative. Further studies evaluating ThyroSeq v2 performance are needed, particularly in B-III.

Background: The ThyroSeq v2 next-generation sequencing assay (ThyroSeq) estimates the probability of malignancy in indeterminate thyroid nodules (ITN). Its diagnostic accuracy in different practice settings and patient populations is not well understood. Methods: We analyzed 273 Bethesda III/IV ITN evaluated with ThyroSeq at 4 institutions: 2 comprehensive cancer centers (n=98 and 102), a multicenter healthcare system (n=60), and an academic medical center (n=13). The positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of ThyroSeq, and distribution of final pathology were analyzed and compared to values predicted by Bayes Theorem. Results: Across 4 institutions, the PPV was 35% (22-43%), and NPV was 93% (88-100%). Predictive values correlated closely with Bayes Theorem estimates (r2=.84), although PPVs were lower than expected. RAS mutations were the most frequent molecular alteration. Among 84 RAS- mutated nodules, malignancy risk was variable (25%, range 10-37%), and distribution of benign diagnoses differed across institutions (adenoma/hyperplasia 12-85%, NIFTP 5-46%). Conclusions: In a multi-institutional analysis, ThyroSeq PPVs were variable and lower than expected. This is attributable to differences in the prevalence of malignancy, and variability in pathologist interpretations of non-invasive tumors. It is important that clinicians understand ThyroSeq performance in their practice setting when evaluating these results.

Objective: Several molecular marker tests are available to refine the diagnosis of thyroid nodules. Knowing the true prevalence of malignancy (PoM) within each cytological category is considered necessary to select the most appropriate test and to interpret results accurately. We describe our institutional PoM among cytological categories and report our experience with molecular markers. Design: Single-center retrospective study. Methods: We calculated the institutional PoM for each category of the Bethesda system (Bethesda) on all thyroid nodules with cytological evaluation from October 2008 to May 2014. We estimated the predictive values for Afirma, miRInform, and ThyroSeq v2, based on published sensitivity and specificity. Finally, we assessed our own experience with miRInform. Results: The PoMs for Bethesda III and IV categories were 21 and 28%, respectively. ThyroSeq v2 achieves the highest theoretical negative and positive predictive values (NPV and PPV) in Bethesda III (98 and 75%) and Bethesda IV categories (96 and 83%). At our institution, miRInform detected a mutation in 16% of 109 indeterminate nodules tested, all in Bethesda IV specimens. Histology was available in 56 (51%) nodules. The observed sensitivity and specificity in Bethesda IV specimens were 63 and 86%, yielding an NPV and a PPV of 75 and 77%, respectively. Conclusions: For our current Bethesda III and IV PoM, the actual performance of miRInform was worse than expected. Theoretically ThyroSeq v2 should have the best performance, but it could be affected in the same way as miRInform, given the similarities between the tests. Assessing the institutional performance of each test is necessary along with PoM individualization.

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