Indonesia has recently announced the relocation of the country's capital from the island of Java to the island of Borneo. Java's limited sustainability is evident from extreme deforestation, biodiversity loss, intense road traffic, and high pollution. Jakarta, Indonesia's current capital on Java, is both one of the most densely populated cities in the world, and one of the most threatened by climate change. Negative impacts upon Jakarta due to climate change could affect its economy, human health, and biodiversity. These negative factors could be transferred from Jakarta to Borneo, at least partially, during the early stages of moving the capital. Borneo currently houses one of the largest remaining forested areas in Southeast Asia and is considered to be a biodiversity hotspot. However, despite its biological importance, ∼30% of Borneo has been deforested in the last 50 years. Borneo also has high rates of biological endemism, but some of its emblematic endemic species are critically endangered. We argue that Indonesia's announcement to re-locate the capital is one of the first examples of systematic, mass migration expected to occur linked to the climate change crisis. Unless a multidisciplinary and sustainable transition is implemented, the establishment of a new capital in Borneo could be a major biodiversity catastrophe. Research is urgently needed in Borneo to determine the status quo of its ecosystems for a largescale, before-after assessment of the human-footprint to better understand processes in the Anthropocene.
Background Neglected tropical diseases affect the most vulnerable populations and cause chronic and debilitating disorders. Socioeconomic vulnerability is a well-known and important determinant of neglected tropical diseases. For example, poverty and sanitation could influence parasite transmission. Nevertheless, the quantitative impact of socioeconomic conditions on disease transmission risk remains poorly explored. Methods This study investigated the role of socioeconomic variables in the predictive capacity of risk models of neglected tropical zoonoses using a decade of epidemiological data (2007–2018) from Brazil. Vector-borne diseases investigated in this study included dengue, malaria, Chagas disease, leishmaniasis, and Brazilian spotted fever, while directly-transmitted zoonotic diseases included schistosomiasis, leptospirosis, and hantaviruses. Environmental and socioeconomic predictors were combined with infectious disease data to build environmental and socioenvironmental sets of ecological niche models and their performances were compared. Results Socioeconomic variables were found to be as important as environmental variables in influencing the estimated likelihood of disease transmission across large spatial scales. The combination of socioeconomic and environmental variables improved overall model accuracy (or predictive power) by 10% on average (P < 0.01), reaching a maximum of 18% in the case of dengue fever. Gross domestic product was the most important socioeconomic variable (37% relative variable importance, all individual models exhibited P < 0.00), showing a decreasing relationship with disease indicating poverty as a major factor for disease transmission. Loss of natural vegetation cover between 2008 and 2018 was the most important environmental variable (42% relative variable importance, P < 0.05) among environmental models, exhibiting a decreasing relationship with disease probability, showing that these diseases are especially prevalent in areas where natural ecosystem destruction is on its initial stages and lower when ecosystem destruction is on more advanced stages. Conclusions Destruction of natural ecosystems coupled with low income explain macro-scale neglected tropical and zoonotic disease probability in Brazil. Addition of socioeconomic variables improves transmission risk forecasts on tandem with environmental variables. Our results highlight that to efficiently address neglected tropical diseases, public health strategies must target both reduction of poverty and cessation of destruction of natural forests and savannas.
Background Climate change presents an imminent threat to almost all biological systems across the globe. In recent years there have been a series of studies showing how changes in climate can impact infectious disease transmission. Many of these publications focus on simulations based on in silico data, shadowing empirical research based on field and laboratory data. A synthesis work of empirical climate change and infectious disease research is still lacking. Methods We conducted a systemic review of research from 2015 to 2020 period on climate change and infectious diseases to identify major trends and current gaps of research. Literature was sourced from Web of Science and PubMed literary repositories using a key word search, and was reviewed using a delineated inclusion criteria by a team of reviewers. Results Our review revealed that both taxonomic and geographic biases are present in climate and infectious disease research, specifically with regard to types of disease transmission and localities studied. Empirical investigations on vector-borne diseases associated with mosquitoes comprised the majority of research on the climate change and infectious disease literature. Furthermore, demographic trends in the institutions and individuals published revealed research bias towards research conducted across temperate, high-income countries. We also identified key trends in funding sources for most resent literature and a discrepancy in the gender identities of publishing authors which may reflect current systemic inequities in the scientific field. Conclusions Future research lines on climate change and infectious diseases should considered diseases of direct transmission (non-vector-borne) and more research effort in the tropics. Inclusion of local research in low- and middle-income countries was generally neglected. Research on climate change and infectious disease has failed to be socially inclusive, geographically balanced, and broad in terms of the disease systems studied, limiting our capacities to better understand the actual effects of climate change on health. Graphical abstract
Enhanced vegetative index (EVI) data can be used to identify and define the space in which ungulates practice parturition and encounter predation. This study explores the use of EVI data to identify landscapes linked to ungulate parturition and predation events across space, time, and environmental conditions. As a case study we used the moose population Alces alces of northern Minnesota in the United States. Using remotely sensed EVI data rasters and GPS collar data, we quantified how vegetation phenology and moose movement shaped the births and predation of 52 moose calves from 2013 to 2020 on or adjacent to the Grand Portage Indian Reservation. The known sources of predation were American black bears (Ursus americanus, n = 22) and grey wolves (Canis lupus, n = 28). Satellite-derived data summarizing seasonal landscape features at the local level revealed that landscape heterogeneity use by moose can help to quantitatively identify landscapes of parturition and predation in space and time across large areas. Vegetation phenology proved to be differentiable between adult moose ranges, sites of cow parturition, and sites of calf predation. Landscape characteristics of each moose group were consistent and tractable based on environment, suggesting that sites of parturition and predation of moose are predictable in space and time. This analytical framework can be employed to identify areas for future ungulate research on the impacts of landscape on parturition and predation dynamics.
The common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus) is a sanguivorous (i.e., blood-eating) bat species distributed in the Americas from northern Mexico southwards to central Chile and Argentina. Desmodus rotundus is one of only three mammal species known to feed exclusively on blood, mainly from domestic mammals, although large wildlife and occasionally humans can also serve as a food source. Blood feeding makes D. rotundus an effective transmissor of pathogens to its prey. Consequently, this species is a common target of culling efforts by various individuals and organizations. Nevertheless, little is known about the historical distribution of D. rotundus. Detailed occurrence data are critical for the accurate assessment of past and current distributions of D. rotundus as part of ecological, biogeographical, and epidemiological research. This article presents a dataset of D. rotundus historical occurrence reports, including >39,000 locality reports across the Americas to facilitate the development of spatiotemporal studies of the species. Data are available at 10.6084/m9.figshare.15025296.
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