[1] A suite of climate change indices derived from daily temperature and precipitation data, with a primary focus on extreme events, were computed and analyzed. By setting an exact formula for each index and using specially designed software, analyses done in different countries have been combined seamlessly. This has enabled the presentation of the most up-to-date and comprehensive global picture of trends in extreme temperature and precipitation indices using results from a number of workshops held in data-sparse regions and high-quality station data supplied by numerous scientists world wide. Seasonal and annual indices for the period 1951-2003 were gridded. Trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes associated with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature. Over 70% of the global land area sampled showed a significant decrease in the annual occurrence of cold nights and a significant increase in the annual occurrence of warm nights. Some regions experienced a more than doubling of these indices. This implies a positive shift in the distribution of daily minimum temperature throughout the globe. Daily maximum temperature indices showed similar changes but with smaller magnitudes. Precipitation changes showed a widespread and significant increase, but the changes are much less spatially coherent compared with temperature change. Probability distributions of indices derived from approximately 200 temperature and 600 precipitation stations, with nearcomplete data for 1901-2003 and covering a very large region of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes (and parts of Australia for precipitation) were analyzed for the periods 1901-1950, 1951-1978 and 1979-2003. Results indicate a significant warming throughout the 20th century. Differences in temperature indices distributions are particularly pronounced between the most recent two periods and for those indices related to minimum temperature. An analysis of those indices for which seasonal time series are available shows that these changes occur for all seasons although they are generally least pronounced for September to November. Precipitation indices show a tendency toward wetter conditions throughout the 20th century.
[1] In this study, we present the collation and analysis of the gridded land-based dataset of indices of temperature and precipitation extremes: HadEX2. Indices were calculated based on station data using a consistent approach recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, resulting in the production of 17 temperature and 12 precipitation indices derived from daily maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation observations. High-quality in situ observations from over 7000 temperature and 11,000 precipitation meteorological stations across the globe were obtained to calculate the indices over the period of record available for each station. Monthly and annual indices were then interpolated onto a 3.75 Â 2.5 longitude-latitude grid over the period 1901-2010. Linear trends in the gridded fields were computed and tested for statistical significance. Overall there was very good agreement with the previous HadEX dataset during the overlapping data period. Results showed widespread significant changes in temperature extremes consistent with warming, especially for those indices derived from daily minimum temperature over the whole 110 years of record but with stronger trends in more recent decades. Seasonal results showed significant warming in all seasons but more so in the colder months. Precipitation indices also showed widespread and significant trends, but the changes were much more spatially heterogeneous compared with temperature changes. However, results indicated more areas with significant increasing trends in extreme precipitation amounts, intensity, and frequency than areas with decreasing trends.Citation: Donat, M. G., et al. (2013), Updated analyses of temperature and precipitation extreme indices since the beginning of the twentieth century: The HadEX2 dataset,
Based on a newly developed daily precipitation dataset of 740 stations in China and more robust trend detection techniques, trends in annual and seasonal total precipitation and in extreme daily precipitation, defined as those larger than its 95th percentile for the year, summer, and winter half years, have been assessed for the period 1951–2000. Possible links between changes in total precipitation and frequency of extremes have also been explored. The results indicate that there is little trend in total precipitation for China as a whole, but there are distinctive regional and seasonal patterns of trends. Annual total precipitation has significantly decreased over southern northeast China, north China, and over the Sichuan Basin but significantly increased in western China, the Yangtze River valley, and the southeastern coast. In western China, precipitation increase has been observed for both cold and warm seasons. However, trends differ from one season to another in eastern China. Spring precipitation has increased in southern northeast China and north China but decreased significantly in the midreach of the Yangzte River. The summer precipitation trend is very similar to that of annual totals. Autumn precipitation has generally decreased throughout eastern China. In winter, precipitation has significantly decreased over the northern part of eastern China but increased in the south. The number of rain days has significantly decreased throughout most parts of China with northwest China being an exception. Meanwhile, precipitation intensity has significantly increased. This suggests that the precipitation increase in western China is due to the increase in both precipitation frequency and intensity. In eastern China, the impact of reduced number of rain days seems to be more dominant in the north while the influence of enhanced intensity prevails in the south. Over regions with increasing precipitation trends, there have been much higher than normal frequency of precipitation extreme events. For example, significant increases in extreme precipitation have been found in western China, in the mid–lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and in parts of the southwest and south China coastal area. A significant decrease in extremes is observed in north China and the Sichuan Basin. Trends in the number of extremes and total precipitation from nonextreme events are generally in phase. An exception is southwest China where an increase of extreme events is associated with a decrease in total nonextreme precipitation.
The increasing severity of droughts/floods and worsening air quality from increasing aerosols in Asia monsoon regions are the two gravest threats facing over 60% of the world population living in Asian monsoon regions. These dual threats have fueled a large body of research in the last decade on the roles of aerosols in impacting Asian monsoon weather and climate. This paper provides a comprehensive review of studies on Asian aerosols, monsoons, and their interactions. The Asian monsoon region is a primary source of emissions of diverse species of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural origins. The distributions of aerosol loading are strongly influenced by distinct weather and climatic regimes, which are, in turn, modulated by aerosol effects. On a continental scale, aerosols reduce surface insolation and weaken the land-ocean thermal contrast, thus inhibiting the development of monsoons. Locally, aerosol radiative effects alter the thermodynamic stability and convective potential of the lower atmosphere leading to reduced temperatures, increased atmospheric stability, and weakened wind and atmospheric circulations. The atmospheric thermodynamic state, which determines the formation of clouds, convection, and precipitation, may also be altered by aerosols serving as cloud condensation nuclei or ice nuclei. Absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and desert dust in Asian monsoon regions may also induce dynamical feedback processes, leading to a strengthening of the early monsoon and affecting the subsequent evolution of the monsoon. Many mechanisms have been put forth regarding how aerosols modulate the amplitude, frequency, intensity, and phase of different monsoon climate variables. A wide range of theoretical, observational, and modeling findings on the Asian monsoon, aerosols, and their interactions are synthesized. A new paradigm is proposed on investigating aerosol-monsoon interactions, in which natural aerosols such as desert dust, black carbon from biomass burning, and biogenic aerosols from vegetation are considered integral components of an intrinsic aerosol-monsoon climate system, subject to external forcing of global warming, anthropogenic aerosols, and land use and change. Future research on aerosol-monsoon interactions calls for an integrated approach and international collaborations based on long-term sustained observations, process measurements, and improved models, as well as using observations to constrain model simulations and projections.
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