The price–volume relationship of stocks can be impacted substantially by structural changes and market volatility. In this paper, we analyze China’s stock market behavior and subsequent price–volume equation, with emphasis on two periods of market volatility and structural changes during 2007–2008 and 2015–2016. To account for the impacts of unknown volatility and time breaks, we embed the price–volume relationship into a vector autoregression (VAR) framework with structural breaks and volatility thresholds. Our results indicate that significant time-breaking effects exist and that the high-low volatility effects are substantial. Finally, in its entirety, we identify only a linear causal relationship from price to volume.
This study employs the network connectedness approach to examine the risk spillover between the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and exchange rate volatility (ERV) of 21 countries. Using monthly data from January 1997 to August 2022, we find that the spillover effect of ERV on EPU is greater than that of the inverse. In addition, the spillover effect of EPU on ERV is mainly concentrated in the foreign exchange markets of developing countries. This finding indicates that the foreign exchange markets of developing countries are more susceptible to shocks of global economic risk, and the spreading of risk contagion between EPU and ERV mainly follows the pathway “increase in global ERV → rising global EPU → further intensified volatility in the foreign exchange markets of developing countries.” A rolling-window analysis shows that the spillover between global EPU and ERV is time-varying. The cross-market spillovers between EPU and ERV in the post-crisis period continued to rise and further increased sharply after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic.
This study investigates the regime‐specific relationship between the USD exchange rate and oil prices. We embed the threshold variables of structural breaks and oil financialization into the VAR model of the dollar–oil relationship. Using daily data from 1983 to 2022, we find that a marked structural change in the dollar–oil relation exists in 2001 and that deepening oil financialization drives the structural change, making the portfolio effect the dominant effect of the dollar on oil prices. After 2001, the dollar negatively affects oil prices in both the long and short run. Furthermore, our threshold regression based on the investor self‐adaptive expectation model shows that investor expectations significantly affect the dollar–oil relationship under oil financialization. A sharp increase in USD exchange rate volatility would strengthen investors' unilateral expectation of the trend of the USD exchange rate, which further enhances the portfolio effect, resulting in an even stronger negative effect of the dollar on oil prices.
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