We provide research findings on the physics of aerosol and droplet dispersion relevant to the hypothesized aerosol transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during the current pandemic. We utilize physics-based modeling at different levels of complexity, along with previous literature on coronaviruses, to investigate the possibility of airborne transmission. The previous literature, our 0D-3D simulations by various physics-based models, and theoretical calculations, indicate that the typical size range of speech and cough originated droplets ( ) allows lingering in the air for ) so that they could be inhaled. Consistent with the previous literature, numerical evidence on the rapid drying process of even large droplets, up to sizes , into droplet nuclei/aerosols is provided. Based on the literature and the public media sources, we provide evidence that the individuals, who have been tested positive on COVID-19, could have been exposed to aerosols/droplet nuclei by inhaling them in significant numbers e.g. . By 3D scale-resolving computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, we give various examples on the transport and dilution of aerosols ( ) over distances in generic environments. We study susceptible and infected individuals in generic public places by Monte-Carlo modelling. The developed model takes into account the locally varying aerosol concentration levels which the susceptible accumulate via inhalation. The introduced concept, ’exposure time’ to virus containing aerosols is proposed to complement the traditional ’safety distance’ thinking. We show that the exposure time to inhale aerosols could range from to or even to depending on the situation. The Monte-Carlo simulations, along with the theory, provide clear quantitative insight to the exposure time in different public indoor environments.

A diatom-based calibration model for predicting summer temperatures was developed using climatically sensitive subarctic lakes in northern Fennoscandia. The model was applied to a sediment core from a treeline lake to infer trends in Holocene climate. The record exhibits long-term variations, as well as a series of shorter-term fluctuations on a time scale of centuries. Summers were warmest in the area about 6200 cal yr B.P. and featured distinct cooling episodes around 8300, 7200, 4200, 3000, and 400 cal yr B.P., most of these coinciding with some known climate events (e.g., the 8200 cal yr B.P. event and the Little Ice Age). The similarity of the observed shifts with the pacings of climate events from marine and ice-core records represents evidence for coupled ocean–atmosphere forcing of the regional climate.

BackgroundDay care centre (DCC) attendees play a central role in maintaining the circulation of Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) in the population. Exposure within families and within DCCs are the main risk factors for colonisation with pneumococcal serotypes in DCC attendees.MethodsTransmission of serotype specific carriage was analysed with a continuous time event history model, based on longitudinal data from day care attendees and their family members. Rates of acquisition, conditional on exposure, were estimated in a Bayesian framework utilising latent processes of carriage. To ensure a correct level of exposure, non-participating day care attendees and their family members were included in the analysis. Posterior predictive simulations were used to quantify transmission patterns within day care cohorts, to estimate the basic reproduction number for pneumococcal carriage in a population of day care cohorts, and to assess the critical vaccine efficacy against carriage to eliminate pneumococcal transmission.ResultsThe model, validated by posterior predictive sampling, was successful in capturing the strong temporal clustering of pneumococcal serotypes in the day care cohorts. In average 2.7 new outbreaks of pneumococcal carriage initiate in a day care cohort each month. While 39% of outbreaks were of size one, the mean outbreak size was 7.6 individuals and the mean length of an outbreak was 2.8 months. The role of families in creating and maintaining transmission was minimal, as only 10% of acquisitions in day care attendees were from family members. Considering a population of day care cohorts, a child-to-child basic reproduction number was estimated as 1.4 and the critical vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage as 0.3.ConclusionPneumococcal transmission occurs in serotype specific outbreaks of carriage, driven by within-day-care transmission and between-serotype competition. An amplifying effect of the day care cohorts enhances the spread of pneumococcal serotypes within the population. The effect of vaccination, in addition to reducing susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage in the vaccinated, induces a herd effect, thus creating a counter-effect to the amplifying effect of the cohort. Consequently, the critical vaccine efficacy against carriage, required for elimination of transmission, is relatively low. Use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines is expected to induce a notable herd protection against pneumococcal disease.

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