A quantitative risk assessment was developed to describe the risk of campylobacteriosis and hemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) linked to consumption of raw milk sold in vending machines in Northern Italy. Exposure assessment considered the microbiological status of dairy farms, expected milk contamination, storage conditions from bulk tank to home storage, microbial growth during storage, destruction experiments, consumption frequency of raw milk, age of consumers, serving size, and consumption preference. The differential risk between milk handled under regulation conditions (4°C throughout all phases) and the worst field handling conditions was considered. The probability of Campylobacter jejuni infection was modeled with a single-hit dose-response beta-Poisson model, whereas for HUS an exponential dose-response model was chosen and two probabilities were used to model the higher susceptibility of children younger than 5 years old. For every 10,000 to 20,000 consumers each year, the models predicted for the best and worst storage conditions, respectively, 2.12 and 1.14 campylobacteriosis cases and 0.02 and 0.09 HUS cases in the 0- to 5-year age group and 0.1 and 0.5 HUS cases in the >5-year age group. The expected pediatric HUS cases do not differ considerably from those reported in Italy by the Minister of Health. The model developed may be a useful tool for extending the assessment of the risk of campylobacteriosis and HUS due to raw milk consumption at the national level in Italy. Considering the epidemiological implications of this study, the risk of illness linked to raw milk consumption should not be ignored and could be reduced by the use of simple measures. Boiling milk before consumption and strict control of temperatures by farmers during raw milk distribution have significant effects on campylobacteriosis and HUS and are essential measures for risk management.
Prevalence data were collected from official microbiological records monitoring four selected foodborne pathogens (Salmonella, Listeria monocytogenes, Escherichia coli O157:H7, and Campylobacter jejuni) in raw milk sold by self-service vending machines in seven Italian regions (60,907 samples from 1,239 vending machines) from 2008 to 2011. Data from samples analyzed by both culture-based and real-time PCR methods were collected in one region. One hundred raw milk consumers in four regions were interviewed while purchasing raw milk from vending machines. One hundred seventy-eight of 60,907 samples were positive for one of the four foodborne pathogens investigated: 18 samples were positive for Salmonella, 83 for L. monocytogenes, 24 for E. coli O157:H7, and 53 for C. jejuni in the seven regions investigated. No significant differences in prevalence were found among regions, but a significant increase in C. jejuni prevalence was observed over the years of the study. A comparison of the two analysis methods revealed that real-time PCR was 2.71 to 9.40 times more sensitive than the culture-based method. Data on consumer habits revealed that some behaviors may enhance the risk of infection linked to raw milk consumption: 37% of consumers did not boil milk before consumption, 93% never used an insulated bag to transport raw milk home, and raw milk was consumed by children younger than 5 years of age. These results emphasize that end-product controls alone are not sufficient to guarantee an adequate level of consumer protection. The beta distribution of positive samples in this study and the data on raw milk consumer habits will be useful for the development of a national quantitative risk assessment of Salmonella, L. monocytogenes, E. coli O157, and C. jejuni infection associated with raw milk consumption.
The safety of raw milk sold in Northern Italy was investigated in relation to hygiene quality parameters and presence of Salmonella spp., Listeria monocytogenes, thermotolerant Campylobacter, and Verocytotoxin producing Escherichia coli O157:H7. The performance of different analytical methods used-official culture method (ISO), modified Bacteriological Analytical Manual cultural method (mBAM), and polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-was evaluated. The presence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (Map) was investigated only by PCR. All samples met regulations for alkaline phosphatase and inhibitory substance, while 18% and 44.8% of samples collected from vending machines had, respectively, somatic cell count (SCC) > 300,000/mL and total bacterial count (TBC) > 50,000 CFU/mL. The correlation between hygienic quality parameters in samples collected from bulk tank and vending machines showed a significant increase of TBC in vending machines meaning that raw milk was mishandled during distribution and sale. All pathogens investigated were detected in raw milk sold at vending machines; a total of five samples (5%) had at least one pathogen, of which two were detected by PCR and three by mBAM. None of the samples was positive by cultural ISO methods. Even if the comparison of analytical methods showed that none performs significantly better than the others, testing a higher volume of milk (25 versus 210 mL) affects significantly the detection rate of pathogens. Three samples (3%) were positive for Map, suggesting that raw milk is a significant source of Map exposure for consumers. The observed TBC increase and the detection of several pathogenic bacteria pose questions on the safety of raw milk; the use of ISO seems inefficient in detecting a low contamination level of pathogens in milk and consequently not appropriate as official method for testing. In order to ensure consumer's safety, a new approach for the raw milk chain is required.
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