BackgroundDyslipidemia is a risk factor for incident type 2 diabetes; however, no study has specifically assessed the lipid ratios (i.e. total cholesterol (TC)/high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and triglyceride (TG)/HDL-C) as predictors of diabetes. We aimed to compare the independent association between the different lipid measures with incident diabetes over a median follow up of 6.4 years in Iranian men and women.MethodThe study population consisted of 5201 non diabetic (men = 2173, women = 3028) subjects, aged ≥20 years. The risk factor adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for diabetes were calculated for every 1 standard deviation (SD) change in TC, log-transformed TG, HDL-C, non-HDL-C, TC/HDL-C and log-transformed TG/HDL-C using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to define the points of the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity (MAXss) of each lipid measure as a predictor of diabetes.ResultWe found 366 (146 men and 220 women) new diabetes cases during follow-up. The risk-factor-adjusted ORs for a 1 SD increase in TG, TC/HDL-C and TG/HDL-C were 1.23, 1.27 and 1.25 in men; the corresponding risks in females were 1.36, 1.14, 1.39 respectively (all p < 0.05, except TC/HDL-C in females which was marginally significant, p = 0.07). A 1 SD increase of HDL-C only in women decreased the risk of diabetes by 25% [0.75(0.64-0.89)]. In both genders, there was no difference in the discriminatory power of different lipid measures to predict incident diabetes in the risk factor adjusted models (ROC ≈ 82%). TG cutoff values of 1.98 and 1.66 mmol/l; TG/HDL-C cutoff values of 4.7 and 3.7, in men and women, respectively, TC/HDL-C cutoff value of 5.3 in both genders and HDL-C cutoff value of 1.18 mmol/l in women yielded the MAXss for defining the incidence of diabetes.ConclusionTC/HDL-C and TG/HDL-C showed similar performance for diabetes prediction in men population however; among women TG/HDL-C highlighted higher risk than did TC/HDL-C, although there was no difference in discriminatory power. Importantly, HDL-C had a protective effect for incident diabetes only among women.

Objective: To determine cutoff points of anthropometric variables for predicting incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Iranian adults. Design: It is a population-based longitudinal study. Subjects: A total of 1614 men and 2006 women, aged X40 years, free of CVD at baseline were included in the study. Measurements: Body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) and cardiovascular risks were assessed. Incident CVD was ascertained over a median of 7.6 years follow-up. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD were calculated for 1 s.d. change in all obesity variables using Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used as the method of defining the points of the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity (MAXss) of each variable as a predictor of CVD. Results: We found 333 CVD events during follow-up. The risk-factor-adjusted HRs were significant for all anthropometric variables in males and WHR in females and were 1.19, 1.24, 1.21 and 1.24 for BMI, WC, WHR and WHtR in males and 1.27 for WHR in females, respectively (all Po0.05). ROC analysis showed the highest area under curve (AUC) for WHR, WHtR and WC, followed by BMI in males and both genders agedp60 years. In females, WHR and WHtR had the highest AUC, followed by WC and BMI. Among those 460 years old, all the anthropometric variables showed same CVD predicting power. The cutoff values (MAXss) for CVD prediction in males and females were BMIs 26.95 and 29.19 kg m À2 ,WCs 94.5 and 94.5 cm, WHRs 0.95 and 0.90, and WHtR 0.55 and 0.62, respectively. Conclusion: There was no difference between central obesity variables in predicting CVD in males, whereas in females WHR and WHtR were more appropriate. The cutoff values of anthropometric variables were higher in the Iranian than in other Asian populations.

BackgroundConsidering the increasing trend of obesity reported in current data, this study was conducted to examine trends of obesity and abdominal obesity among Tehranian adults during a median follow-up of 6.6 years.MethodsHeight and weight of 4402 adults, aged 20 years and over, participants of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS), were measured in 1999-2001(phase I) and again in 2002-2005(phase II) and 2006-2008 (phase III). Criteria used for obesity and abdominal obesity defined body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 and waist circumference ≥ 94/80 cm for men/women respectively. Subjects were divided into10-year groups and the prevalence of obesity was compared across sex and age groups.ResultsThe prevalence of obesity was 15.8, 18.6 and 21% in men and 31.5, 37.7 and 38.6% in women in phases I, II and III respectively (p < 0.001). The prevalence of abdominal obesity in men was 36.5, 57.2 and 63.3% and in women was 76.7, 83.8 and 83.6% in the three periods mentioned (p < 0.001). Men aged between 20-29 years had highest increase rates of obesity and abdominal obesity in phase III in comparison with phase I (with a respective rates of 2.2- and 3.3-fold). In both sexes, an increased trend was observed between phases I and II, whereas between phases II and III, this trend was observed in men, but not in women.ConclusionThis study demonstrates alarming rises in the prevalences of both obesity and abdominal obesity in both sexes especially in young men, calling for urgent action to educate people in lifestyle modifications.