Less-invasive thoracotomies may reduce early postoperative pain. The aims of this study were to identify pain trajectories from postoperative days 0–5 after posterolateral and axillary thoracotomies and to identify potential factors related to the worst trajectory. Patients undergoing a posterolateral (92 patients) or axillary (89 patients) thoracotomy between July 2014 and November 2015 were analyzed in this prospective monocentric cohort study. The best-fitting model resulted in four pain trajectory groups: trajectory 1, the “worst”, with 29.8% of the patients with permanent significant pain; trajectory 2 with patients with low pain (32.6%); trajectory 3 with patients with a steep decrease in pain (22.7%); and trajectory 4 with patients with a steep increase (14.9%). According to a multinomial logistic model multivariable analysis, some predictive factors allow for differentiation between trajectory groups 1 and 2. Risk factors for permanent pain are the existence of preoperative pain (OR = 6.94, CI 95% (1.54–31.27)) and scar length (OR = 1.20 (1.05–1.38)). In contrast, ASA class III is a protective factor in group 1 (OR = 0.02 (0.001–0.52)). In conclusion, early postoperative pain can be characterized by four trajectories and preoperative pain is a major factor for the worst trajectory of early postoperative pain.

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