This paper analyses the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on households' food security in Burkina Faso. For this purpose, we have made use of a single country's computable general equilibrium model and formulated two alternative scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic). While the baseline already shows a worrying food situation, our results suggest that the pandemic of Covid-19 contributes to a worsening of food security. First, the food deficit of poor rural and urban households worsens. Second, even if their food consumption decreases, the urban non-poor households seem to be resilient to the Covid-19 pandemic. The severity of food insecurity is increasing among poor households in rural and urban areas, whereas the non-poor rural households are likely to fall into the category of vulnerable people. Third, the negative impacts on food security can be explained by the combination of several factors such as a rise in food prices, a decrease in households' incomes and remittances. Finally, the negative impact on food security seems permanent, as the deviation from the baseline persists over 10 years (2020-2030). Keywords COVID-19 • Food security • Computable general equilibrium Résumé Cet article analyse l'impact de la pandémie de la COVID-19 sur la sécurité alimentaire des ménages au Burkina Faso. À cette fin, nous avons utilisé un modèle d'équilibre général calculable mono-pays et formulé deux scénarios alternatifs (l'un

This paper makes use of a Computable General Equilibrium model to analyze the impact of two agricultural productivity trends on poor households’ food security in Burkina Faso: a negative trend that could arise from many different factors, including land degradation, climate change, and harmful agricultural practices; and a positive trend which may result from enhanced public investment in agriculture, notably in research and development, extension, irrigation, rural roads, rural electrification, and rural education. The results point to a high sensitivity of the poor's consumption to agricultural productivity as well as to stronger impacts on the urban poor than on the rural poor. The current situation is already characterized by severe food insecurity, such that a decline in agricultural productivity is likely to further plunge the urban poor into a deep food crisis. By contrast, positive agricultural productivity trends may help alleviate poverty and food insecurity. Agricultural productivity may indeed affect the poor's food consumption mainly through large changes in agricultural prices and real incomes. Cet article utilise un modèle d’Équilibre Général Calculable pour analyser l'impact des différentes tendances de la productivité agricole sur la sécurité alimentaire des ménages pauvres au Burkina Faso. D'une part, les tendances négatives peuvent résulter de plusieurs facteurs, y compris la dégradation des terres, le changement climatique, et les pratiques agricoles nuisibles. D'autre part, la tendance positive peut résulter de l'investissement public accru dans l'agriculture, notamment dans la recherche et développement, la vulgarisation, l'irrigation, les routes rurales, l′électrification rurale et l′éducation rurale. Les résultats montrent une sensibilité élevée de la consommation des pauvres à la productivité agricole, ainsi que des impacts plus forts sur les populations urbaines pauvres. La situation actuelle est déjà caractérisée par une insécurité alimentaire grave de sorte qu'une baisse de la productivité agricole est susceptible de plonger davantage les pauvres en milieu urbain dans une crise alimentaire profonde. En revanche, la tendance positive sur la productivité agricole peut contribuer à atténuer la pauvreté et l'insécurité alimentaire. La productivité agricole peut en effet affecter la consommation alimentaire des pauvres principalement par le biais de grandes variations des prix agricoles et des revenus réels.

In this paper, we construct an economy-wide recursive dynamic model for Burkina Faso to explore the impact of scaling up public capital in different aggregate sectors. While several researchers emphasize the importance for sub-Saharan African countries of giving higher priority to agriculture to stimulate economic growth and reduce poverty, some authors state that non-agricultural sectors should now receive special attention following the success achieved in some countries in South Asia. These countries have indeed applied a different paradigm: a program of economic growth and poverty reduction based on non-agricultural sectors. This study aims to provide insights into this debate. It draws from the public capital productivity literature to postulate the positive productive externalities of public investment. The results show that, with the same amount of public investment, financed by the same source, public investment in agriculture yields positive impacts that are significantly higher than those yielded by investments in non-agricultural sectors (industry and services). Added value growth in non-agricultural sectors is higher under public investment in agriculture than in non-agricultural sectors.

COVID-19 has forced many governments to take emergency health measures which are undermining productive capacities and disrupting global supply chains. Southern and Northern Africa have been heavily impacted by such measures. According to UNCTAD statistics (2021), the average annual growth rate of exports in Northern and Southern Africa fell by 27.61% and 6.96%, respectively in 2020. Yet, the effective operationalization of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) could have limited some of the pandemic’s economic impacts. Using a computable general equilibrium model, this paper first analyzes the pandemic’s economic impact and then assesses the ability of the AfCFTA to mitigate the economic impacts of COVID-19. The simulation results show that the AfCFTA would mitigate the economic impact in Southern and Northern Africa. It reduces the decline in intra-regional exports by 7.87 percentage points in 2021. The study emphasizes the need to remove non-tariff barriers to amplify potential positive effects.

Publié par Raestud, n° 96 vol 3, septembre 2015, pages 411-437 RésuméCet article analyse les raisons des faibles performances dans la lutte contre l'insécurité alimentaire et la pauvreté au Burkina Faso malgré les performances macroéconomiques enregistrées par le pays au cours des dernières décennies. Il analyse ensuite, à l'aide d'un modèle d'Equilibre Général Calculable, la capacité d'un investissement public dans l'agriculture à améliorer la situation actuelle des pauvres. Plusieurs éléments se conjuguent pour expliquer la persistance de la pauvreté et de l'insécurité alimentaire: la forte croissance démographique qui implique une faible croissance du PIB par tête ; la faible contribution de l'agriculture à la croissance globale; la persistance d'un chômage urbain ; et une répartition des fruits de la croissance peu favorable aux pauvres. L'investissement public dans l'agriculture, en augmentant la productivité dans les activités agricoles, permet des progrès en milieu rural et surtout en milieu urbain. Abstract This paper analyses the reasons for the weak results in fighting against food insecurity and poverty in Burkina Faso, despite the country's good macroeconomic performances recorded in recent decades. It then analyses, using a Computable General Equilibrium model, the ability of a public investment in agriculture to