Objectives-Prediction of patient outcome can be useful as an aid to clinical decision making, to explore possible biological mechanisms, and as part of the clinical audit process. Many studies have constructed predictive models for survival after traumatic brain injury, but these have often used expensive, time consuming, or highly specialised measurements. The aim of this study was to develop a simple easy to use model involving only variables which are rapidly and easily clinically achievable in routine practice. Methods-All consecutive patients admitted to a regional trauma centre with moderate or severe head injury were enrolled in the study. Basic demographic, injury, and CT characteristics were recorded. Patient survival at 1 year was used to construct a simple predictive model which was then validated on a very similar patient group. Results-372 patients were included in the study, of whom 365 (98%) were followed up for survival at 1 year. Multiple logistic regression resulted in a model containing age (p<0.001), Glasgow coma scale score (p<0.001), injury severity score (p<0.001), pupil reactivity (p=0.004), and presence of haematoma on CT (p=0.004) as independently significant predictors of survival. The model was validated on an independent set of 520 patients, showing good discrimination and adequate calibration, but with a tendency to be pessimistic about very severely injured patients. It is presented as an easy to use nomogram. Conclusions-All five variables have previously been shown to be related to survival. All variables in the model are clinically simple and easy to measure rapidly in a centre with access to 24 hour CT, resulting in a model that is both well validated and clinically useful. (J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry 1999;66:20-25)

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Take-home message:In adult and paediatric patients suffering from severe traumatic brain injury, an approximately exponential curve describes the relationship between intensity and duration of episodes of increased intracranial pressure (ICP) and worse clinical outcomes. In children, compared to adults, this occurs at lower ICP thresholds of shorter duration. Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00134-015-3806-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. To assess the impact of the duration and intensity of episodes of increased intracranial pressure on 6-month neurological outcome in adult and paediatric traumatic brain injury. Methods:Analysis of prospectively collected minute-by-minute intracranial pressure and mean arterial blood pressure data of 261 adult and 99 paediatric traumatic brain injury patients from multiple European centres. The relationship of episodes of elevated intracranial pressure (defined as a pressure above a certain threshold during a certain time) with 6-month Glasgow Outcome Scale was visualized in a colour-coded plot. Results:The colour-coded plot illustrates the intuitive concept that episodes of higher intracranial pressure can only be tolerated for shorter durations: the curve that delineates the duration and intensity of those intracranial pressure episodes associated with worse outcome is an approximately exponential decay curve. In children, the curve resembles that of adults, but the delineation between episodes associated with worse outcome occurs at lower intracranial pressure thresholds. Intracranial pressures above 20 mmHg lasting longer than 37 minutes in adults, and longer than 8 minutes in children, are associated with worse outcomes. In a multivariate model, together with known baseline risk factors for outcome in severe traumatic brain injury, the cumulative intracranial pressure-time burden is independently associated with mortality. When cerebrovascular autoregulation, assessed with the low-frequency autoregulation index, is impaired, the ability to tolerate elevated intracranial pressures is reduced. When the cerebral perfusion pressure is below 50 mmHg, all intracranial pressure insults, regardless of duration are associated with worse outcome. Conclusions:The intracranial pressure-time burden associated with worse outcome is visualised in a colour-coded plot. In children, secondary injury occurs at lower intracranial pressure thresholds as compared to adults. Impaired cerebrovascular autoregulation reduces the ability to tolerate intracranial pressure insults. Thus, 50 mmHg might be the lower acceptable threshold for cerebral perfusion pressure.

Six patients in whom "essential hypertension" led to nephrosclerosis and kidney failure received kidney transplants from normotensive donors. After an average follow-up of 4.5 years, all were normotensive and had evidence of reversal of hypertensive damage to the heart and retinal vessels. These six patients, all of whom were black, and six control subjects matched for age, sex, and race were admitted to the General Clinical Research Center for 11 days for observation of their blood pressure and their responses to salt deprivation and salt loading. Mean arterial pressure (+/- S.E.M.) among the patients who had previously had essential hypertension was similar to that of the normal controls (92 +/- 1.9 vs. 94 +/- 3.9; P not significant), and both groups had similar responses to salt deprivation and salt loading. Thus, essential hypertension in human beings is shown to be similar to the hypertension seen in spontaneously hypertensive rats in that both can be corrected by transplantation of a kidney from a normotensive donor. This observation supports the concept of the primary of the kidney in causing essential hypertension.