Background Between 5 and 25 April 2009, pandemic (H1N1) 2009 caused a substantial, severe outbreak in Mexico, and subsequently developed into the first global pandemic in 41 years. We determined the reproduction number of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 by analyzing the dynamics of the complete case series in Mexico City during this early period.
Methods We analyzed three mutually exclusive datasets from Mexico City Distrito Federal which constituted all suspect cases from 15 March to 25 April: confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infections, non‐pandemic influenza A infections and patients who tested negative for influenza. We estimated the initial reproduction number from 497 suspect cases identified prior to 20 April, using a novel contact network methodology incorporating dates of symptom onset and hospitalization, variation in contact rates, extrinsic sociological factors, and uncertainties in underreporting and disease progression. We tested the robustness of this estimate using both the subset of laboratory‐confirmed pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infections and an extended case series through 25 April, adjusted for suspected ascertainment bias.
Results The initial reproduction number (95% confidence interval range) for this novel virus is 1·51 (1·32–1·71) based on suspected cases and 1·43 (1·29–1·57) based on confirmed cases before 20 April. The longer time series (through 25 April) yielded a higher estimate of 2·04 (1·84–2·25), which reduced to 1·44 (1·38–1·51) after correction for ascertainment bias.
Conclusions The estimated transmission characteristics of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 suggest that pharmaceutical and non‐pharmaceutical mitigation measures may appreciably limit its spread prior the development of an effective vaccine.
The aim of this paper is to describe drug and associated factors use among adolescents (12 to 17 years of age). Material and Methods. Data come from the recent Encuesta Nacional de Adicciones, 1998 (National Survey on Addictions) undertaken in urban areas of Mexico. A probabilistic, multi-stage, stratified cluster sampling design was used to select the study population. The sampling unit was the individual in each household. Statistical analysis consisted of the estimation of prevalences of drug use, with 95% confidence intervals. Associations were analyzed using logistic regressions models. Results. Excluding tobacco and alcohol, 3.57% of males and 0.6% of females have used one or more drugs; 2.14% and 0.45% used them in the 12 months previous to the survey, and 1.4% and 0.3% in the previous 30 days, respectively. Marihuana was the drug more often used by males (2.4%) and females (0.45%), followed by inhaled solvents (1.08% and 0.20%), and cocaine (0.99% and 0.22%), respectively. The risk of using illicit drugs was associated to being male, having dropped out from school, perceiving availability, drug use by family and friends, social tolerance among friends, and symptoms of depression. Conclusions. Adolescents between 12 to 17 years of age are exposed to increasing drug use. The rates of drug use have risen, especially in the northern region of Mexico and in the big urban areas (Tijuana, Mexico City and Guadala-Consumo de drogas entre adolescentes:
In Mexico, a country with a National BCG Vaccination Program and a low incidence of KD, reaction at the BCG inoculation site could be a useful diagnostic sign of KD.
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