The percentage of patients refusing surgery for operable early-stage pancreatic cancer has been decreasing in the last decade but remains a significant issue that affects survival. Disparities in refusal of surgery are independently associated with several variables including gender, race, and insurance. To mitigate national disparities in surgical care, future studies should focus on exploring potential reasons for refusal and developing communication interventions.

While RAI and ACS-NSQIP Risk Calculator comparatively predicted short-term outcomes after HPB surgery, RAI has been specifically designed to identify frail patients who can potentially benefit from preoperative prehabilitation interventions.

Objective: To develop a predictive model of oncologic outcomes for patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) undergoing resection after neoadjuvant or induction chemotherapy use. Background: Early recurrence following surgical resection for PDAC is common. The use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy prior to resection may increase the likelihood of long-term systemic disease control. Accurately characterizing an individual's likely oncologic outcome in the perioperative setting remains challenging. Methods: Data from patients with PDAC who received chemotherapy prior to pancreatectomy at a single high-volume institution between 2007 and 2018 were captured in a prospectively collected database. Core clinicopathologic data were reviewed for accuracy and survival data were abstracted from the electronic medical record and national databases. Cox-proportional regressions were used to model outcomes and develop an interactive prognostic tool for clinical decision-making. Results: A total of 581 patients were included with a median overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) of 29.5 (26.5-32.5) and 16.6 (15.8-17.5) months, respectively. Multivariable analysis demonstrates OS and RFS were associated with type of chemotherapeutic used and the number of chemotherapy cycles received preoperatively. Additional factors contributing to survival models included: tumor grade, histopathologic response to therapy, nodal status, and administration of adjuvant chemotherapy. The models were validated using an iterative bootstrap method and with randomized cohort splitting. The models were well calibrated with concordance indices of 0.68 and 0.65 for the final OS and RFS models, respectively. Conclusion:We developed an intuitive and dynamic decision-making tool that can be useful in estimating OS, RFS, and location-specific disease recurrence rates. This prognostic tool may add value to patient care in discussing the benefits associated with surgical resection for PDAC.

The aim of the study was to quantify the risk of incarceration of incisional hernias. Background: Operative repair is the definitive treatment for incisional ventral hernias but is often deferred if the perceived risk of elective operation is elevated secondary to comorbid conditions. The risk of incarceration during nonoperative management (NOM) factors into shared decision making by patient and surgeon; however, the incidence of acute incarceration remains largely unknown. Methods: A retrospective analysis of adult patients with an International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision or Tenth Revision diagnosis of incisional hernia was conducted from 2010 to 2017 in 15 hospitals of a single healthcare system. The primary outcome was incarceration necessitating emergent operation. The secondary outcome was 30-, 90-, and 365-day mortality. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to determine independent predictors of incarceration. Results: Among 30,998 patients with an incisional hernia (mean age 58.1 AE 15.9 years; 52.7% female), 23,022 (78.1%) underwent NOM of whom 540 (2.3%) experienced incarceration, yielding a 1-and 5-year cumulative incidence of 1.24% and 2.59%, respectively. Independent variables associated with incarceration included: age older than 40 years, female sex, current smoker, body mass index 30 or greater, and a hernia-related inpatient admission. All-cause mortality rates at 30, 90, and 365 days were significantly higher in the incarceration group at 7.2%, 10%, and 14% versus 1.1%, 2.3%, and 5.3% in patients undergoing successful NOM, respectively. Conclusions: Incarceration is an uncommon complication of NOM but is associated with a significant risk of death. Tailored decision making for elective repair and considering the aforementioned risk factors for incarceration provides an initial step toward mitigating the excess morbidity and mortality of an incarceration event.