Anthropogenic environmental change is often implicated in the emergence of new zoonoses from wildlife; however, there is little mechanistic understanding of these causal links. Here, we examine the transmission dynamics of an emerging zoonotic paramyxovirus, Hendra virus (HeV), in its endemic host, Australian Pteropus bats (fruit bats or flying foxes). HeV is a biosecurity level 4 (BSL-4) pathogen, with a high case-fatality rate in humans and horses. With models parametrized from field and laboratory data, we explore a set of probable contributory mechanisms that explain the spatial and temporal pattern of HeV emergence; including urban habituation and decreased migration-two widely observed changes in flying fox ecology that result from anthropogenic transformation of bat habitat in Australia. Urban habituation increases the number of flying foxes in contact with human and domestic animal populations, and our models suggest that, in addition, decreased bat migratory behaviour could lead to a decline in population immunity, giving rise to more intense outbreaks after local viral reintroduction. Ten of the 14 known HeV outbreaks occurred near urbanized or sedentary flying fox populations, supporting these predictions. We also demonstrate that by incorporating waning maternal immunity into our models, the peak modelled prevalence coincides with the peak annual spill-over hazard for HeV. These results provide the first detailed mechanistic framework for understanding the sporadic temporal pattern of HeV emergence, and of the urban/peri-urban distribution of HeV outbreaks in horses and people.

AImtmc~ Managers of small populations often need to estimate the expected time to extinction T o of their charge£Useful models for extinction times must be ecologically realistic and depend on measurable parameterx Many populations become extinct due to environmental stochasticity, even when the carrying capacity K is stable and the expected growth rate is positive A model is proposed that gives T o by diffusion analysis of the log population size n t (= log o Nt). The model population grows according to the equation N t + 1 = RtN ~ with K as a ceiling. Application of the model re. quires estimation of the parameters k = logiC, r u = the expected change in r~ Vr = Variance(log R), and p the autocorrelation of the r e These are readily calculable from annual census data (r d is trickiest to estimate). General for. mulas for T e are derived As a special cas~ when environmental fluctuations ovent~lm expected growth (that is r a -~ 0), T o = 2no( k -no/2 yv~. If the rtdre autocorrelatea~ then the effective varlance is v~ ~ Vr(1 + p)/(1 -p). The theory is applied to populations of checkerspot butterfly, grizzly bear, wolf, and mountain lion.Predicci6n del tiempo de extinci6n a partir de estocasticidad ambiental y capacidad de carga Resumen: Los administradores de pequefuts poblaclones necesitan estimar, a menudo, el tlempo de extinci6n T o esperado de las poblaciones a su cargo. Modelos titiles para los tiempos de extinci6n deben ser ecol6gtcamente realisticos y depender de pardmetro$ medible~ Mtw.ha$ poblaciones se extinguen debido a la estocastictdad amblentaL aun cuando la capactdad de carga es estable y la tasa de crecimieto esperada es positivat Se propone un modelo que da T o pot medio de andlisis de difuei6n del logaritmo del tamaho poblacional n t (= log o Nt). La poblaci6n modelada crece de acuerdo a la ecuacion N t + 1 = RtNt con K como techo. La aplicact6n de este modeio requiem la estimaci6n dei pardmetro k = logK, r d = cambio esperado en r~ v r = Varlanza (log R), y p la autocorreiaci6n de r e Estos son calculables a partir de datos de sensos anuales (r des el rods diflcil de estimar). Se derlvan f6rmulas generales para T o. Como caso especial cuando las fluctuaclones amblentales domitian el crecimiento esperado (es decir, r a ~-0), T o = 2n o (k -n o /2)/v r. Si los r t estan autocorrelaclonado~ entonces la varlanza efectiva es v~ -~ v~ (1 + p)/(1 -p). La teorla es apticada a poblaciones de marlposas "'checkerspog" osos grise~ lobos y leones de montafu~ The ProblemEcologists and conservation biologists are often obliged to make predictions about extinction times from scanty data, such as five years of population sizes, Christmas

This paper outlines the results of research currently being carried out at Victoria University, Australia, into what is a learning organization, how organizations learn, and how to develop a learning organization. The objective of the present study was to identify the components that underpin the development and operation of a learning organization, i.e. the foundations, or organizational learning mechanisms, that support the development and maintenance of a learning organization. The study identified four facilitating mechanisms: the learning environment, identifying learning and development needs, meeting learning and development needs and applying learning in the workplace. Factor analysis of the learning environment questionnaire identified 12 scales that supported the structural hypotheses, 11 of which had minimum reliability coefficients of 0.70 and above. This research provides an instrument for systematically measuring and monitoring progress towards achieving a learning organization.

Success of feral cat management programs that use TNR can be monitored with an easily collected set of data and statistical analyses facilitated by population modeling techniques. Results may be used to suggest possible future monitoring and modification of TNR programs, which could result in greater success controlling and reducing feral cat populations.

Yersinia pestis invaded the continental United States in 1900 and subsequently became established in wild rodent populations in several western states, traversing 2,250 km in approximately 40 years. However, the specific path of the eastward expansion of plague into the United States is poorly understood. We directly calculated velocities of disease spread and performed trend-surface analyses on spatio-temporally unique plague cases to clarify the route and speed of the initial spread of plague eastward. Velocities of disease spread were then analyzed using multiple linear regression models to identify environmental features that significantly impacted the rate of spread. Between one and three introductions of plague along the Pacific coast were observed, after which plague traveled from 45 to 87 km/year. In all regression models, the coast ranges of California were associated with slower spread, and the Southern Rockies were associated with a significant increase in the rate of disease spread. Additional climatic and environmental factors affecting the velocity of plague's spread varied among the models. Maps were developed to graphically represent the traveling waves of plague over the United States landscape. These analyses identify important large-scale trends regarding the eastward invasion of plague into the continental United States that can be used to better understand the historical spread of plague, as well as how to manage threats from new or re-emerging diseases that might operate under similar spatio-temporal dynamics.