Wildfires are one of the major disasters among many and are responsible for more than 6 million acres burned in the United States alone every year. Accurate, insightful, and timely wildfire detection is needed to help authorities mitigate and prevent further destruction. Uncertainty quantification is always a crucial part of the detection of natural disasters, such as wildfires, and modeling products can be misinterpreted without proper uncertainty quantification. In this study, we propose a supervised deep generative machine-learning model that generates stochastic wildfire detection, allowing fast and comprehensive uncertainty quantification for individual and collective events. In the proposed approach, we also aim to address the patchy and discontinuous Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) wildfire product by training the proposed model with MODIS raw and combined bands to detect fire. This approach allows us to generate diverse but plausible segmentations to represent the disagreements regarding the delineation of wildfire boundaries by subject matter experts. The proposed approach generates stochastic segmentation via two model streams in which one learns meaningful stochastic latent distributions, and the other learns the visual features. Two model branches join eventually to become a supervised stochastic image-to-image wildfire detection model. The model is compared to two baseline stochastic machine-learning models: (1) with permanent dropout in training and test phases and (2) with Stochastic ReLU activations. The visual and statistical metrics demonstrate better agreements between the ground truth and the proposed model segmentations. Furthermore, we used multiple scenarios to evaluate the model comprehension, and the proposed Probabilistic U-Net model demonstrates a better understanding of the underlying physical dynamics of wildfires compared to the baselines.
Deep generative learning cannot only be used for generating new data with statistical characteristics derived from input data but also for anomaly detection, by separating nominal and anomalous instances based on their reconstruction quality. In this paper, we explore the performance of three unsupervised deep generative models---variational autoencoders (VAEs) with Gaussian, Bernoulli, and Boltzmann priors---in detecting anomalies in multivariate time series of commercial-flight operations. We created two VAE models with discrete latent variables (DVAEs), one with a factorized Bernoulli prior and one with a restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM) with novel positive-phase architecture as prior, because of the demand for discrete-variable models in machine-learning applications and because the integration of quantum devices based on two-level quantum systems requires such models. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first that applies DVAE models to anomaly-detection tasks in the aerospace field. The DVAE with RBM prior, using a relatively simple---and classically or quantum-mechanically enhanceable---sampling technique for the evolution of the RBM's negative phase, performed better in detecting anomalies than the Bernoulli DVAE and on par with the Gaussian model, which has a continuous latent space. The transfer of a model to an unseen dataset with the same anomaly but without re-tuning of hyperparameters or re-training noticeably impaired anomaly-detection performance, but performance could be improved by post-training on the new dataset. The RBM model was robust to change of anomaly type and phase of flight during which the anomaly occurred. Our studies demonstrate the competitiveness of a discrete deep generative model with its Gaussian counterpart on anomaly-detection problems. Moreover, the DVAE model with RBM prior can be easily integrated with quantum sampling by outsourcing its generative process to measurements of quantum states obtained from a quantum annealer or gate-model device.
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