This paper introduces a Bayesian network model for the motivation and psychology of the malicious insider. First, an initial model was developed based on results in the research literature, highlighting critical variables for the prediction of degree of interest in a potentially malicious insider. Second, a survey was conducted to measure these predictive variables in a common sample of normal participants. Third, a structural equation model was constructed based on the original model, updated based on a split-half sample of the empirical survey data and validated against the other half of the dataset. Fourth, the Bayesian network was adjusted in light of the results of the empirical analysis. Fifth, the updated model was used to develop an upper bound on the quality of model predictions of its own simulated data. When empirical data regarding psychological predictors were input to the model, predictions of counterproductive behavior approached the upper bound of model predictiveness.

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We describe research on a comprehensive ontology of sociotechnical and organizational factors for insider threat (SOFIT) and results of an expert knowledge elicitation study. The study examined how alternative insider threat assessment models may reflect associations among constructs beyond the relationships defined in the hierarchical class structure. Results clearly indicate that individual indicators contribute differentially to expert judgments of insider threat risk. Further, models based on ontology class structure more accurately predict expert judgments. There is some (although weak) empirical evidence that other associations among constructssuch as the roles that indicators play in an insider threat exploit-may also contribute to expert judgments of insider threat risk. These findings contribute to ongoing research aimed at development of more effective insider threat decision support tools.

(Maximum 200 wor^s):The U.S. Total Arniy Personnel Command requested an evaluation of the Army Continuing Education System (ACES) to demonstrate its value in improving enlisted soldier retention and performance. This report describes the planning of the evaluation, including a review of the relevant research literature and the development of evaluation and database development plans.The research literature provides limited coverage of continuing education programs. Results indicate that those who participate in continuing education tend to be better qualified than those who don't. The research suggests that participation in continuing education increases the likelihood of reenlistment and improves performance. The effect remains at a reduced magnitude when other factors are controlled statistically.The evaluation plan addresses five ACES programs: (a) the Army Tuition Assistance (TA) Program, (b) the Seroice members Opportunity Colleges Amiy Degree (SOCAD) Program (c) the Functional Academic Skills Training (FAST) program, (d) Military Occupational Specialty (MOS) Improvement Courses, and (e) Non-commissioned Officer (NCO) Leader Development Courses. The methodological approach addresses several potential evaluation problems, including non-random assignment, censored data, missing data, measurement en-or, and unobserved heterogeneity. The database development plan specifies the variables needed to conduct the evaluation, and identifies data-building procedures that will result in an analytically relevant fivaluatinn database The U.S. Total Army Personnel Command (PERSCOM) requested an evaluation of the Army Continuing Education System (ACES) to demonstrate its value in the areas of retention and soldier performance for enlisted soldiers. The evaluation consists of two phases. Phase I is the development of an evaluation plan to collect and analyze the data. Phase 11 consists of data collection and analysis. This report describes the planning effort that was conducted in Phase I of the evaluation. Procedure:The effort included a review of the relevant research and evaluation literature and the preparation of evaluation and database development plans. The literature review covered relevant reports in both the military and civilian research literatures. Military research directly evaluated ACES components, comparable programs in other Services, or Department of Defense (DoD)-wide continuing education programs. The civilian literature provided information regarding analogous programs.The evaluation plan was based on the results of the literature review and on discussions with PERSCOM regarding the nature of specific ACES programs. The plan assesses the effect of five selected ACES programs on soldier retention and performance. The planned analysis of retention considers reenlistment and early attrition, while the analysis of performance focuses on promotion and recl^sification. In addition, the planned evaluation includes a cost-effectiveness analysis of ACES programs.The preparation of the database developm...

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