An understanding of how undesirable and desirable fish species respond behaviorally to turbulent flow in fishways would guide development of selective fish passage techniques. We applied high resolution computational fluid dynamics modeling and competing risks analysis towards the development of predictive selective passage models. Sea lamprey <i>Petromyzon marinus</i> (an invasive fish in the Great Lakes Basin, North America) upstream passage probability declined from 0.73 to 0.03 as flow conditions became increasingly turbulent, while declines in white sucker <i>Catostomus commersonii </i>(a native fish in the region) upstream passage probability were less substantial (0.53 to 0.44). Deploying a sea lamprey trap in the fishway did not effectively reduce sea lamprey upstream passage probability, though capture rate increased during trials with cooler water temperature and low total kinetic energy. Bifurcated fishways that maintain low turbulent flow in the entrapment route and high turbulent flow in the upstream passage route could increase the effectiveness of trapping sea lamprey in fishways as a means to advance selective passage goals.
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