The purpose of this research is to empirically test the salmon bias hypothesis, which states that the “healthy migrant” effect—referring to a situation in which migrants enjoy lower mortality risks than natives—is caused by selective return-migration of the weak, sick, and elderly. Using a unique longitudinal micro-level database—the Historical Sample of the Netherlands—we tracked the life courses of internal migrants after they had left the city of Rotterdam, which allowed us to compare mortality risks of stayers, returnees, and movers using survival analysis for the study group as a whole, and also for men and women separately. Although migrants who stayed in the receiving society had significantly higher mortality risks than natives, no significant difference was found for migrants who returned to their municipality of birth (returnees). By contrast, migrants who left for another destination (movers) had much lower mortality risks than natives. Natives who left Rotterdam also had significantly lower mortality risks than natives who stayed in Rotterdam. Female migrants, in particular, who stayed in the receiving urban society paid a long-term health price. In the case of Rotterdam, the salmon bias hypothesis can be rejected because the lower mortality effect among migrants was not caused by selective return-migration. The healthy migrant effect is real and due to a positive selection effect: Healthier people are more likely to migrate.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1007/s12110-017-9303-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
A longitudinal approach is used to describe and explain processes of social inclusion and exclusion among different groups of migrants in Antwerp and Stockholm (1846 -1926), in terms of access to marriage and reproduction. In this way we want to get a better idea about the factors which facilitated or hampered the social inclusion of migrants upon arrival in two different Western European port cities. The results of the discrete time event history analyses show that social inclusion of migrants was easier in Antwerp and became easier over time, while in Stockholm it was more difficult and became even more complicated over time. This finding might be interpreted as the result of greater societal openness in Antwerp, as the Belgian port-city's economic success depended largely upon foreigners and international trade. Higher odds for social inclusion in Antwerp might also have been related to differences in the chances of finding an urban niche, which in turn might have been a result of disparities in economic and demographic growth. Most likely it was a combination of differences in the local opportunity structure and the level of societal openness. Furthermore, it was found that region and place of birth, age at arrival, historical time period, and, in the case of Stockholm, gender and social class had an important impact on the chances of successful inclusion.
In this article a comparison is drawn between the historical Western European marriage pattern (WEMP), and more recent trends in nuptiality in Arab countries. This comparison makes clear that marriage behavior in the present-
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