No abstract

Objective To document whether elements of a structured history and examination predict adverse outcome of acute sore throat.Design Prospective clinical cohort. Setting Primary care.Participants 14 610 adults with acute sore throat (≤2 weeks' duration). Main outcome measuresCommon suppurative complications (quinsy or peritonsillar abscess, otitis media, sinusitis, impetigo or cellulitis) and reconsultation with new or unresolving symptoms within one month. ResultsComplications were assessed reliably (inter-rater κ=0.95). 1.3% (177/13 445) of participants developed complications overall and 14.2% (1889/13 288) reconsulted with new or unresolving symptoms. Independent predictors of complications were severe tonsillar inflammation (documented among 13.0% (1652/12 717); odds ratio 1.92, 95% confidence interval 1.28 to 2.89) and severe earache (5% (667/13 323); 3.02, 1.91 to 4.76), but the model including both variables had modest prognostic utility (bootstrapped area under the receiver operator curve 0.61, 0.57 to 0.65), and 70% of complications (124/177) occurred when neither was present. Clinical prediction rules for bacterial infection (Centor criteria and FeverPAIN) also predicted complications, but predictive values were also poor and most complications occurred with low scores (67% (118/175) scoring ≤2 for Centor; 126/173 (73%) scoring ≤2 for FeverPAIN). Previous medical problems, sex, temperature, and muscle aches were independently but weakly associated with reconsultation with new or unresolving symptoms.

In the routine care of adults with sore throat, a delayed antibiotic strategy confers similar symptomatic benefits to immediate antibiotics compared with no antibiotics. If a decision is made to prescribe an antibiotic, a delayed antibiotic strategy is likely to yield similar symptomatic benefit to immediate antibiotics.

Background. Guidelines recommend 10 day treatment courses for acute sore throat but shorter courses may be used in

IntroductionThe economic cost of osteoarthritis (OA) is high. At least 4.4 million people have hand OA in the UK. Symptomatic thumb base OA affects 20% of people over 55 years, causing more pain, work and functional disability than OA elsewhere in the hand. Most evidence-based guidelines recommend splinting for hand OA. Splints that support or immobilise the thumb base are routinely used despite there being limited evidence on their effectiveness. The potential effects of placebo interventions in OA are acknowledged, but few studies investigate the clinical efficacy of rehabilitation interventions nor the impact of any placebo effects associated with splints.Methods and analysisParticipants aged 30 years and over with symptomatic thumb base OA will be recruited into the trial from secondary care occupational therapy and physiotherapy centres. Following informed consent, participants will complete a baseline questionnaire and then be randomised into one of three treatment arms: a self-management programme, a self-management programme plus a verum thumb splint or a self-management programme plus a placebo thumb splint. The primary outcome is the Australian Canadian Osteoarthritis Hand Index (AUSCAN) hand pain scale. The study endpoint is 8 weeks after baseline. Baseline assessments will be carried out prior to randomisation and outcomes collected at 4, 8 and 12 weeks. Cost-effectiveness analysis will be conducted and individual qualitative interviews conducted with up to 40 participants after 8 weeks to explore perceptions and outcome expectations of verum and placebo splints and exercise.Ethics and disseminationSouth Central—Oxford C Research Ethics Committee approved this study (16/SC/0188). The findings will be disseminated to health professional conferences, journals and lay publications for patient organisations. The research will contribute to improving the management of thumb base OA and help clinicians and patients make informed decisions about the value of different interventions.Trial registration number ISRCTN54744256.