The aim of this paper is to analyse integration and test the hypothesis of an efficient market, in its weak form, in sixteen international financial markets. The sample covers the period from January 2002 to July 2019 and is divided into three sub-periods. In order to achieve such an analysis, the aim is to provide answers to two questions. Has the global financial crisis intensified the financial integration of international markets? If there is a process of mean-reversion in the international stock markets, with arbitrage, the hypothesis of portfolio diversification will be feasible? The results suggest that the global financial crisis has intensified the integration level of international financial markets. Regarding random walk and market efficiency hypotheses, in its weak form, the results suggest the existence of a mean-reversion and the rejection of the hypothesis of information efficiency, in its weak form, in developed and emerging markets, European and non-European. In terms of portfolio diversification analysis, we see that levels of financial integration decreased significantly in the sub-period following the global financial crisis, namely with its respective benchmarks, such as the US market, Japan and Hong Kong. We can assess the existence of feasible diversification opportunities in the long term.
This paper aims to analyse financial integration in the markets of Brazil, China, India and Russia (BRIC’s), from July 2015 to June 2020, being the sample split in pre and during the global pandemic (Covid-19). In order to carry out this analysis, different approaches were undertaken to analyse two issues, namely, whether: (i) the global pandemic has accentuated the interdependencies in the BRIC financial markets? If so, how it has influenced the efficiency of portfolio diversification. The results suggest very significant levels of integration, in the Covid period these evidences diminish the chances of portfolio diversification in the long term. In turn, the analysis of the relationship between markets, in the short term, through the impulse response functions, in a period of global pandemic, shows positive/negative movements, with statistical significance, with persistence exceeding one week. In addition, there was no immediate adjustment in prices between markets, due to the high levels of shocks identified. Regarding the implementation of efficient portfolio diversification strategies, we consider that a good option for investors would be to avoid investments in stock markets. In this sense, one suggestion could be to invest in derivatives, gold and sovereign debt markets, with the purpose of diversifying portfolios and mitigating the risk arising from the global pandemic. The authors consider that the results achieved are of interest to investors seeking opportunities in these exchanges, as well as to policy makers to undertake institutional reforms in order to increase the efficiency of stock markets and promote the sustainable growth of financial markets.
The pandemic (Covid-19) has affected the global economy, and the impact on financial markets seems inevitable. In view of these events, this essay aims to analyse the shocks between the stock market indices of Brazil (BOVESPA), China (SSEC) India (SENSEX), Russia (IMOEX) and oil (WTC), in the period from January 2, 2019 to May 29, 2020. In order to carry out this analysis, different approaches were undertaken with a view to gauging whether (i) the global pandemic has accentuated the shocks between the BRIC financial markets and the WTC? The daily yields do not have normal distributions, show negative asymmetries, leptokurtic, and exhibit conditional heteroscedasticity. In general, we find evidence that the WTC causes the markets of Russia and India, China does not cause any market, and Brazil is not caused by any market analysed. On the other hand, short-term market shocks are relevant and create some arbitrage opportunities. However, our study did not analyse anomalous returns in these financial markets. These findings also open space for market regulators to take action to ensure better information between international financial markets.
This research analyses the co-movements between sovereign debt markets, and the stock mar
This essay aims to analyze the impact of the 2020 global pandemic on the memory properties of the Eastern Europe stock markets, from the period between 1 January 2016 to 2 September 2020, the sample was divided in two subperiods: 1 January 2016 to 30 August 2019 (before Covid 19) and 2 September 2019 to 2 September 2020 (after Covid 19). To perform this analysis, different approaches were undertaken to analyze whether if: (i) the global pandemic (Covid-19) accentuated the exponents Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) and the Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis (𝑝𝐷𝐶𝐶𝐴) in the Eastern European stock markets?. The daily returns do not have normal distributions, they have negative asymmetries, leptocubtic, and also exhibit conditional heteroscedasticity. The exponents Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA), during the Covid-19 period, range from 0.64 to 0.75, showing significant long memories in all markets, except for the SLOVAKIA market (0.45). When we compared the 2 subperiods, we found that 41 pairs of markets have cross-correlation coefficients without trend ( λDCCA) strong (out of 45 possible), and 4 pairs of markets decreased the 𝑟ℎ𝑜𝐷𝐶𝐶𝐴 in particular the markets ESTONIA-SLOVAKIA, LITHUANIA-SLOVAKIA, HUNGARY-SLOVAKIA, POLAND-SLOVAKIA. These findings show that the assumption of the market efficiency hypothesis may be in question, since the prediction of market movement can be improved if we consider the out-of-lag movements of the other markets, enabling the occurrence of arbitrage operations and some difficulties in portfolio diversification.
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