Background COVID-19 spread rapidly in Brazil despite the country's well established health and social protection systems. Understanding the relationships between health-system preparedness, responses to COVID-19, and the pattern of spread of the epidemic is particularly important in a country marked by wide inequalities in socioeconomic characteristics (eg, housing and employment status) and other health risks (age structure and burden of chronic disease). Methods From several publicly available sources in Brazil, we obtained data on health risk factors for severe COVID-19 (proportion of the population with chronic disease and proportion aged ≥60 years), socioeconomic vulnerability (proportions of the population with housing vulnerability or without formal work), health-system capacity (numbers of intensive care unit beds and physicians), coverage of health and social assistance, deaths from COVID-19, and state-level responses of government in terms of physical distancing policies. We also obtained data on the proportion of the population staying at home, based on locational data, as a measure of physical distancing adherence. We developed a socioeconomic vulnerability index (SVI) based on household characteristics and the Human Development Index. Data were analysed at the state and municipal levels. Descriptive statistics and correlations between state-level indicators were used to characterise the relationship between the availability of health-care resources and socioeconomic characteristics and the spread of the epidemic and the response of governments and populations in terms of new investments, legislation, and physical distancing. We used linear regressions on a municipality-by-month dataset from February to October, 2020, to characterise the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and response to the epidemic across municipalities. Findings The initial spread of COVID-19 was mostly affected by patterns of socioeconomic vulnerability as measured by the SVI rather than population age structure and prevalence of health risk factors. The states with a high (greater than median) SVI were able to expand hospital capacity, to enact stringent COVID-19-related legislation, and to increase physical distancing adherence in the population, although not sufficiently to prevent higher COVID-19 mortality during the initial phase of the epidemic compared with states with a low SVI. Death rates accelerated until June, 2020, particularly in municipalities with the highest socioeconomic vulnerability. Throughout the following months, however, differences in policy response converged in municipalities with lower and higher SVIs, while physical distancing remained relatively higher and death rates became relatively lower in the municipalities with the highest SVIs compared with those with lower SVIs. Interpretation In Brazil, existing socioeconomic inequalities, rather than age, health status, and other risk factors for COVID-19, have...

Objective: To use mathematical models to predict the epidemiological impact of lifting the lockdown in London, UK, and alternative strategies to help inform policy in the UK. Methods: A mathematical model for the transmission of SARS-CoV2 in London. The model was parametrised using data on notified cases, deaths, contacts, and mobility to analyse the epidemic in the UK capital. We investigated the impact of multiple non pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and combinations of these measures on future incidence of COVID-19. Results: Immediate action at the early stages of an epidemic in the affected districts would have tackled spread. While an extended lockdown is highly effective, other measures such as shielding older populations, universal testing and facemasks can all potentially contribute to a reduction of infections and deaths. However, based on current evidence it seems unlikely they will be as effective as continued lockdown. In order to achieve elimination and lift lockdown within 5 months, the best strategy seems to be a combination of weekly universal testing, contact tracing and use of facemasks, with concurrent lockdown. This approach could potentially reduce deaths by 48% compared with continued lockdown alone. Conclusions: A combination of NPIs such as universal testing, contact tracing and mask use while under lockdown would be associated with least deaths and infections. This approach would require high uptake and sustained local effort but it is potentially feasible as may lead to elimination in a relatively short time scale.

In this paper we adopt a growth accounting projection model to estimate and characterize health-financing needs in Brazil as well as to assess the extent to which financing needs may diverge from spending capacity in the future. We estimate an annual increase of 0.71% in the share of projected financing needs relative to GDP, with excess growth rates being 0.74% and 0.69% for the public and private health sectors, respectively. Institutional reforms and public spending restrictions may leverage public-private segmentation in health financing throughout the next decades, thus potentially leading to losses of equity in the system. Our projections contribute to a scant empirical literature on health financing sustainability in low-and middle-income countries and shed light on the role of spending capacity and institutional constraints over the path towards universal health coverage.

IntroductionIntervention strategies that seek to improve early childhood development outcomes are often targeted at the primary caregivers of children, usually mothers. The interventions require mothers to assimilate new information and then act upon it by allocating sufficient physical resources and time to adopt and perform development promoting behaviours. However, women face many competing demands on their resources and time, returning to familiar habits and behaviours. In this study, we explore mothers' allocation of time for caregiving activities for children under the age of 2, nested within a cluster randomised controlled trial of a nutrition and care for development intervention in rural Haryana, India.MethodsWe collected quantitative maternal time use data at two time points in rural Haryana, India, using a bespoke survey instrument. Data were collected from 704 mothers when their child was 12 months old, and 603 mothers when their child was 18 months old. We tested for significant differences in time spent by mothers on different activities when children are 12 months of age vs. 18 months of age between arms as well as over time, using linear regression. As these data were collected within a randomised controlled trial, we adjusted for clusters using random effects when testing for significant differences between the two time points.ResultsAt both time points, no statistically significant difference in maternal time use was found between arms. On average, mothers spent most of their waking time on household chores (over 6 h and 30 min) at both time points. When children were aged 12 months, approximately three and a half hours were spent on childcare activities for children under the age of 2 years. When children were 18 months old, mothers spent more time on income generating activities (30 min) than when the children were 12 years old, and on leisure (approximately 4 h and 30 min). When children were 18 months old, less time was spent on feeding/breastfeeding children (30 min less) and playing with children (15 min). However, mothers spent more time talking or reading to children at 18 months than at 12 months.ConclusionWe find that within a relatively short period of time in early childhood, maternal (or caregiver) time use can change, with time allocation being diverted away from childcare activities to others. This suggests that changing maternal time allocation in resource poor households may be quite challenging, and not allow the uptake of new and/or optimal behaviours.

Este estudo tem por objetivo avaliar os efeitos da adoção do regime de Ciclos (progressão continuada) sobre indicadores educacionais e sociais nas escolas públicas de ensino fundamental (EF) no Brasil, considerando diferentes períodos de exposição a esse regime. Para tanto, utiliza-se o método de diferenças em diferenças com reponderação baseada no propensity score matching para a função condicional média e para diferentes quantis da distribuição condicional dos indicadores. As evidências apontam que a adoção dos Ciclos impacta negativamente na proficiência em matemática e português - sobretudo, para o 5º ano do EF -, porém as magnitudes das estimativas não implicam alterações expressivas na posição das escolas sob Ciclos e Séries na escala de proficiência do SAEB. Por outro lado, as escolas especialmente com 3 anos ou mais de exposição à progressão continuada apresentam menores taxas de distorção idade-série na série final da primeira fase do EF, assim como observa-se para o 9º ano do EF um elevado aumento nas taxas de conclusão escolar e expectativas dos discentes permanecerem estudando. O efeito sobre a redução dos custos de oportunidade dos jovens, capturados pelas suas perspectivas educacionais após o EF, ocorre com maior intensidade no extremo negativo da distribuição condicional desse indicador. Portanto, conclui-se que os resultados auferidos realçam a importância da inclusão do tempo de exposição para melhor identificar os impactos da adoção da progressão continuada.