An analytical model is derived to efficiently describe the wave energy distribution along the main transects of a moving extreme weather event. The model essentially builds on a generalization of the self‐similar wave growth model and the assumption of a strongly dominant single spectral mode in a given quadrant of the storm. The criterion to anticipate wave enhancement with the generation of trapped abnormal waves defined as gr/ur2≈cTtrue(ur/Vtrue)1/q, with r, u, and V, radial distance, average sustained wind speed, and translation velocity, respectively. Constants q and cT follow the fetch‐law definitions. If forced during a sufficient time scale interval, also defined from this generalized self‐similar wave growth model, waves can be trapped and large amplification of the wave energy will occur in the front‐right storm quadrant. Remarkably, the group velocity and corresponding wavelength of outrunning wave systems will become wind speed independent and solely related to the translating velocity. The resulting significant wave height also only weakly depends on wind speed, and more strongly on the translation velocity. Compared to altimeter satellite measurements, the proposed analytical solutions for the wave energy distribution demonstrate convincing agreement. As analytically developed, the wave enhancement criterion can provide a rapid evaluation to document the general characteristics of each storm, especially the expected wavefield asymmetry.
A new climatology of polar lows over the Nordic and Barents seas for 14 seasons (1995/1996–2008/2009) is presented. For the first time in climatological studies of polar lows an approach based on satellite passive microwave data was adopted for polar low identification. A total of 637 polar lows were found in 14 extended winter seasons by combining total atmospheric water vapor content and sea surface wind speed fields retrieved from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager data. As derived, the polar low activity in the Norwegian and Barents Seas is found to be almost equal, and the main polar low genesis area is located northeastward of the North Cape. For the Barents Sea, a significant correlation is found between the number of polar lows and mean sea ice extent. Individual indicative polar low characteristics (i.e., diameter, lifetime, distance traveled, translation speed, and maximum wind speed) are also presented.
Representation of polar lows in the new high-resolution Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) was for the first time assessed and compared to that in the ERA-Interim. Substantial improvements were found in the 850-hPa relative vorticity and near-surface wind speed information. The latter was found to be in close agreement with satellite-derived estimates. Representation of polar lows from a widely used selective list in ERA-Interim and ASR was estimated as 48% and 89%, respectively. The proportion of polar lows represented in ASR is substantially higher than reported for other reanalyses in previous studies. Verifications were found to be sensitive to the polar low reference list used, and to the definition of a polar low. As found, when a more complete polar low list from a recent satellite-derived climatology was used, the proportion of represented events decreased to 26% and 66% for ERA-Interim and ASR, respectively. Variations in polar low representation in reanalyses were also observed in different regions, with the highest proportion resolved in the Norwegian Sea. Strong dependence between polar low sizes and their representation in ERA-Interim was found. In the case of ASR, polar low representation remains constant in the size range of 200–500 km and slightly decreases only for the smallest systems with diameters less than 200 km. Usage of the strict threshold of 43 K for the atmospheric static stability criterion was found to exclude a considerable number of otherwise well-represented polar lows.
A list of North Atlantic polar lows was compiled for 2015–2017. A total of 131 polar lows were found by analyzing the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) infrared imagery and auxiliary information. The study region was additionally divided by the 20° W meridian to assess possible differences in the polar lows occurring in the western and eastern parts of the region. The highest polar low activity was found over the Barents Sea and the northern Norwegian Sea. A large number of polar lows over this region were dual or multiple. When considering such systems as a single event, more polar lows were found in 2015 over the Labrador Sea and southern Davis Strait, which is the region with the second highest number of polar lows. High interannual variability of polar low frequency was noted, which was more pronounced in the western part of the region. During the analyzed period, the largest number of polar lows occurred in January for the western part of the region and in February for the eastern part. The main polar low parameters were similar within the region, with the mean values slightly higher in the western part of the region, but all extreme high values were observed in the eastern part.
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