This article investigates the dynamical complexity and fractal characteristics changes of the Bitcoin/US dollar (BTC/USD) and Euro/US dollar (EUR/USD) returns in the period before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, we applied the asymmetric multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (A-MF-DFA) method to investigate the temporal evolution of the asymmetric multifractal spectrum parameters. In addition, we examined the temporal evolution of Fuzzy entropy, non-extensive Tsallis entropy, Shannon entropy, and Fisher information. Our research was motivated to contribute to the comprehension of the pandemic’s impact and the possible changes it caused in two currencies that play a key role in the modern financial system. Our results revealed that for the overall trend both before and after the outbreak of the pandemic, the BTC/USD returns exhibited persistent behavior while the EUR/USD returns exhibited anti-persistent behavior. Additionally, after the outbreak of COVID-19, there was an increase in the degree of multifractality, a dominance of large fluctuations, as well as a sharp decrease of the complexity (i.e., increase of the order and information content and decrease of randomness) of both BTC/USD and EUR/USD returns. The World Health Organization (WHO) announcement, in which COVID-19 was declared a global pandemic, appears to have had a significant impact on the sudden change in complexity. Our findings can help both investors and risk managers, as well as policymakers, to formulate a comprehensive response to the occurrence of such external events.

No abstract

The field of study of complex systems considers that the dynamics of complex systems are founded on universal principles that may be used to describe a great variety of scientific and technological approaches of different types of natural, artificial, and social systems. Several authors have suggested that earthquake dynamics and the dynamics of economic (financial) systems can be analyzed within similar mathematical frameworks. We apply concepts of the nonextensive statistical physics, on time-series data of observable manifestations of the underlying complex processes ending up to these different extreme events, in order to support the suggestion that a dynamical analogy exists between a financial crisis (in the form of share or index price collapse) and a single earthquake. We also investigate the existence of such an analogy by means of scale-free statistics (the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of event sizes). We show that the populations of: (i) fractoelectromagnetic events rooted in the activation of a single fault, emerging prior to a significant earthquake, (ii) the trade volume events of different shares / economic indices, prior to a collapse, and (iii) the price fluctuation (considered as the difference of maximum minus minimum price within a day) events of different shares / economic indices, prior to a collapse, follow both the traditional Gutenberg-Richter law as well as a nonextensive model for earthquake dynamics, with similar parameter values. The obtained results imply the existence of a dynamic analogy between earthquakes and economic crises, which moreover follow the dynamics of seizures, magnetic storms and solar flares.

In the frame of complex systems research, methods used to quantitatively analyze specific dynamic phenomena are often used to analyze phenomena from other disciplines on the grounds that are governed by similar dynamics. Technical analysis is considered the oldest, currently omnipresent, method for financial markets analysis, which uses past prices aiming at the possible short-term forecast of future prices. This work is the first attempt to explore the applicability of technical analysis tools on disturbance storm time (Dst) index time series, aiming at the identification of similar features between the Dst time series during magnetic storms (MSs) and asset price time series. We employ the following financial analysis tools: simple moving average (SMA), Bollinger bands, and relative strength index (RSI), formulating an analysis approach based on various features, appearing in financial time series during high volatility periods, that could be found during the different phases of the evolution of an MS (onset, main development, and recovery phase), focusing on the temporal sequence they occur. The applicability of the proposed analysis approach is examined on several MS events and the results reveal similar behavior with the financial time series in high volatility periods. We postulate that these specialized data analysis methods could be combined in the future with other statistical and complex systems time series analysis methods in order to form a useful toolbox for the study of geospace perturbations related to natural hazards.