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Motivated by the rapid upsurge of COVID-19 cases in the United States beginning March 2020, we forecast the disease spread and assess the effectiveness of containment strategies by using an estalished network-driven epidemic dynamic model. Our model is initialized using the daily counts of active and confirmed COVID-19 cases across the US. Based on our model predictions for the March 14-16 timeframe, the national epidemic peak could be expected to arrive by early June, corresponding to a daily active count of ≈ 7% of the US population, if no containment plans are implemented. Epidemic peaks are expected to arrive in the states of Washington and New York by May 21 and 25, respectively. With a modest 25% reduction in COVID-19 transmissibility via community-level interventions, the epidemic progression could be delayed by up to 34 days. Wholesale interstate traffic restriction is ineffective in delaying the epidemic outbreak, but it does desynchronize the arrival of state-wise epidemic peaks, which could potentially alleviate the burden on limited available medical resources. In addition to forecasting the arrival timeline of the state-wise epidemic peaks, we attempt at informing the optimal timing necessary to enforce community-level interventions. Our findings underscore the pressing need for preparedness and timely interventions in states with a large fraction of the vulnerable uninsured and liquid-asset-poverty populations.

Wildfires emit large amounts of black carbon and light-absorbing organic carbon, known as brown carbon, into the atmosphere. These particles perturb Earth’s radiation budget through absorption of incoming shortwave radiation. It is generally thought that brown carbon loses its absorptivity after emission in the atmosphere due to sunlight-driven photochemical bleaching. Consequently, the atmospheric warming effect exerted by brown carbon remains highly variable and poorly represented in climate models compared with that of the relatively nonreactive black carbon. Given that wildfires are predicted to increase globally in the coming decades, it is increasingly important to quantify these radiative impacts. Here we present measurements of ensemble-scale and particle-scale shortwave absorption in smoke plumes from wildfires in the western United States. We find that a type of dark brown carbon contributes three-quarters of the short visible light absorption and half of the long visible light absorption. This strongly absorbing organic aerosol species is water insoluble, resists daytime photobleaching and increases in absorptivity with night-time atmospheric processing. Our findings suggest that parameterizations of brown carbon in climate models need to be revised to improve the estimation of smoke aerosol radiative forcing and associated warming.

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Abstract. Atmospheric black carbon (BC), the strongest absorber of visible solar radiation in the atmosphere, manifests across a wide spectrum of morphologies and compositional heterogeneity. Phenomenologically, the distribution of BC among diverse particles of varied composition gives rise to enhancement of its light absorption capabilities by over twofold in comparison to that of nascent or unmixed homogeneous BC. This situation has challenged the modeling community to consider the full complexity and diversity of BC on a per-particle basis for accurate estimation of its light absorption. The conventionally adopted core–shell approximation, although computationally inexpensive, is inadequate not only in estimating but also capturing absorption trends for ambient BC. Here we develop a unified framework that encompasses the complex diversity in BC morphology and composition using a single metric, the phase shift parameter (ρBC), which quantifies how much phase shift the incoming light waves encounter across a particle compared to that in its absence. We systematically investigate variations in ρBC across the multi-space distribution of BC morphology, mixing state, mass, and composition as reported by field and laboratory observations. We find that ρBC>1 leads to decreased absorption by BC, which explains the weaker absorption enhancements observed in certain regional BC compared to laboratory results of similar mixing state. We formulate universal scaling laws centered on ρBC and provide physics-based insights regarding core–shell approximation overestimating BC light absorption. We conclude by packaging our framework in an open-source Python application to facilitate community-level use in future BC-related research. The package has two main functionalities. The first functionality is for forward problems, wherein experimentally measured BC mixing state and assumed BC morphology are input, and the aerosol absorption properties are output. The second functionality is for inverse problems, wherein experimentally measured BC mixing state and absorption are input, and the morphology of BC is returned. Further, if absorption is measured at multiple wavelengths, the package facilitates the estimation of the imaginary refractive index of coating materials by combining the forward and inverse procedures. Our framework thus provides a computationally inexpensive source for calculation of absorption by BC and can be used to constrain light absorption throughout the atmospheric lifetime of BC.