No abstract

Background Development of a prediction model using baseline characteristics of COVID-19 patients at the time of diagnosis will aid us in early identification of the high-risk groups and devise pertinent strategies accordingly. Hence, we did this study to develop a prognostic-scoring system for predicting the COVID-19 severity in South India. Methods We undertook this retrospective cohort study among COVID-19 patients reporting to Hindu Mission Hospital, India. Multivariable logistic regression using the LASSO procedure was used to select variables for the model building, and the nomogram scoring system was developed with the final selected model. Model discrimination, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA) was performed. Results In total, 35.1% of the patients in the training set developed severe COVID-19 during their follow-up period. In the basic model, nine variables (age group, sex, education, chronic kidney disease, tobacco, cough, dyspnea, olfactory-gustatory dysfunction [OGD], and gastrointestinal symptoms) were selected and a nomogram was built using these variables. In the advanced model, in addition to these variables (except OGD), C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, ferritin, d-dimer, and CT severity score were selected. The discriminatory power (c-index) for basic model was 0.78 (95%CI: 0.74-0.82) and advanced model was 0.83 (95%CI: 0.79-0.87). DCA showed that both the models are beneficial at a threshold probability around 10-95% than treat-none or treat-all strategies. Conclusion The present study has developed two separate prognostic-scoring systems to predict the COVID-19 severity. This scoring system could help the clinicians and policymakers to devise targeted interventions and in turn reduce the COVID-19 mortality in India.

Eucalyptus oil (EO) is an essential oil which has been used as a traditional remedy in upper respiratory tract infection. It contains approximately 90% cineole and is readily available worldwide in over-the-counter cough drops, liniments, toothpaste, mouthwashes, cold preparations, and hair lice remover. EO-induced adverse drug reaction is rare in both adults and children. The signs and symptoms of EO poisoning are CNS depression, hypotension, tachycardia, epigastric pain, nausea, vomiting, and contact dermatitis. Symptom onset is usually rapid and resolves within 24 h. We report the case series of four adult patients with EO-induced seizure in India, who inhaled EO for common cold and presented to the critical care with single first attack of generalized tonic-clonic seizures. On further evaluation, none of them had a family background of seizures/febrile seizures. EEG and brain MRI were found to be normal in all patients. All the patients were managed with anti-epileptic drugs and standard supportive care. All medical practitioners should be aware of the toxic effects of EO, a common OTC medication used in Indian households. Warning labels may be attached on EO comprised products.