No abstract

Increasingly stringent immigration enforcement in the US interior has led to the deportation of large numbers of long‐term Mexican immigrants with families in the USA. We analyse the statistical association between the intent to return to the USA and leaving minor children with spouses or other people in the USA among Mexican immigrants deported from the US interior in 2014–2018, and explore if this association varies by sex and year of deportation. We employ the deportees’ section of the Survey on Migration on Mexico's Northern Border. The results indicate that having left children in the USA considerably increases the likelihood of a plan to return to the USA, especially in the short term and when deportees left minor children with a spouse. Remigration plans were higher among women and slightly decreased over time among parents, suggesting a continued failure of policy to account for the family circumstances of immigrants.

This study examines whether Seguro Popular, a free-of-charge publicly provided health insurance program for otherwise uninsured households, crowdedout private transfers in Mexico. Using data from the National Household Income and Expenditure Survey, the effects of Seguro Popular are identified using the spatial variation in the program's coverage induced by its sequential roll-out throughout Mexico. The results show that Seguro Popular reduced on average a household's probability of receiving private transfers by 5.55 % points. This finding appears to be driven by domestic private transfers, since the program's effects are only statistically significant for private transfers originating within Mexico. In addition, Seguro Popular had a weak and not statistically significant negative effect on the amount of private transfers received. Failure to take into account possible changes in private behaviour induced by Seguro Popular may overstate the program's potential benefits or distributional impacts.

This study examines how variations in homicide rates in Mexico are associated with the likelihood of participating in cross‐border work, that is, living in Mexico but working in the U.S. Based on Mexican census data from 2000, 2010, and 2015, and information on homicides, a series of ordinary least squares models are estimated to analyze the relationship between cross‐border commuting and homicide rates at the individual level. Fixed effects models are also estimated to study this relationship at the municipal level. The results show that from 2000 to 2010 the increase in homicide rates in northern border municipalities in Mexico reduced the likelihood of being a cross‐border worker, while from 2010 to 2015 the decrease in the homicide rate increased the probability that workers engage in cross‐border work. The decline in the number of cross‐border workers is likely in part a result of the escalation in drug‐related violence that may have led them to change their country of residence.

Although 'Seguro Popular' (SP), a healthcare programme for the uninsured, has been in place in Mexico for more than a decade, its consequences for international migration both to and from the country have received little scholarly attention. Using the spatial variation in the programme's coverage generated through the rollout over time, this paper examines the effects of SP on the number of emigrants and return migrants per household. Based on data from Mexico's National Survey on Demographic Dynamics for 1997-2014, the analysis confirms that being affiliated to SP does not reduce the number of emigrants per household, but such affiliation is, however, positively related to the number of returnees per household. These results are valid across different subsamples of the population and time periods and are robust to omitted variable bias. Our findings have important implications for understanding the effects of social protection policies on international migration patterns.