Climate change is a global problem since many countries worldwide are becoming increasingly vulnerable to natural disasters. Numerous climate models in various studies project a decline in agricultural productivity that will mainly be due to excessive heat in tropical and subtropical regions, especially in Southeast Asia. As a Southeast Asian country, Malaysia is no exception to this problem. Hence, the present study aimed to examine the impact of climate change on rice yields in Malaysia. A panel data approach was adopted using data from 1987 to 2017 on eight granary areas in Peninsular Malaysia. The main objectives were to assess the impact of climate variables (i.e., minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation) on rice yield and the variance of the impact during the main season and off-season. Our regression results indicate that precipitation was not statistically significant in all model specifications for both the main and off-season. While the maximum temperature was found to be negatively associated with yield during the off-season, the minimum temperature showed a positive effect in both cropping seasons. We used the HadGEM3-GC31 N512 resolution model based on the high-emission Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 8.5 scenario (SSPs-8.5) from the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to project future climate change in 2030 and 2040. The projected results indicate that rice yield would show a more positive trend by 2040 when compared to the previous decade, ranging from −0.02 to 19.85% during the main season and −2.77 to 7.41% during the off-season. Although rice yield is likely to increase in certain areas, other areas are projected to experience negative effects. Hence, adaptation at the farm level remains crucial, specifically during the off-season, since climate change could widen the gaps in rice yields between cropping seasons and among granary areas.
Application of the Internet of things (IoT) for data collection in solar drying can be very efficient in collecting big data of drying parameters. There are many variables involved so it is hard to find a model to predict the moisture content of the food product during drying. In model building, interaction terms should be incorporated because they also contribute to the model. Eight selection criteria (8SC) is a very useful method in model building. This study applied ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and ridge regression with 8SC in model building to predict the moisture content of drying fish. A total of eighty models were considered in this study. One best model was chosen each from OLS regression and ridge regression. M78.7.3 with a total of eleven independent variables was the best OLS model after conducting multicollinearity and coefficient test. Next, the best ridge model M56.0.0 was obtained after the coefficient test. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was used to measure the accuracy of the prediction model. For OLS model M78.7.3, the MAPE value was 15.7342. The MAPE value for ridge model M56.0.0 was 17.4054. From the MAPE value, OLS model M78.7.3 provided a better estimation than the ridge model M56.0.0. However, OLS model M78.7.3 violated the normality assumptions of residuals. This is highly caused by the outlier problem. So, due to non- normality of the residuals and presence of outliers in the dataset, ridge regression is preferred for the best forecast model.
Two main problems in landslide spatial prediction research are the lack of landslide samples (minority) to train the models and the misunderstanding of assigning equal costs to different misclassifications. In order to handle the problems properly, the research is conducted based on two main objectives, which are to augment the landslide sample data in an efficient way and to assign proper unequal costs to the two types of error when training and evaluating models. Resampling techniques, including random oversampling technique, synthetic minority oversampling technique and self-creating oversampling technique (SCOTE), are used to augment the minority class samples. Logistic regression (LR) and support vector machine (SVM) are used for landslide spatial classification. Receiver operating characteristic and cost curves are used to evaluate the models. The results show that the SVM models trained using the dataset generated by SCOTE with sample size of 10,000 have the best prediction performance. The nonparametric test, Kruskal-Wallis test, is used to test the difference of sample size between different groups, which shows that LR models are more sensitive to the change of sample size. Two landslide susceptibility maps are produced based on the models with the best prediction performance. The verification results show that the maps both successfully predict more than 86% of the susceptible area, which can provide valid information on landslide mitigation and prediction to the local authorities.
Tree-based gradient boosting (TGB) models gain popularity in various areas due to their powerful prediction ability and fast processing speed. This study aims to compare the landslide spatial prediction performance of TGB models and non-tree-based machine learning (NML) models in Penang Island, Malaysia. Two specific instances of TGB models, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM) and two specific instances of NML models, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), are applied to make predictions of landslide susceptibility. Feature selection and oversampling techniques are considered to improve the prediction performance as well. The results are analyzed and discussed mainly based on receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves as well as the area under the curves (AUC). The results show that TGB models give better prediction performance compared to NML models, no matter what the sample size is. The TGB models’ performances are improved when training with the dataset considering either feature selection or oversampling techniques. The highest AUC value of 0.9525 is obtained from the combination of XGBoost and SMOTE. The landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs) produced by XGBoost and LightGBM can provide valuable information in landslide management and mitigation in Penang Island, Malaysia.
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