Accurately predicting the spread of the SARS-CoV-2, the cause of the COVID-19 pandemic, is of great value for global regulatory authorities to overcome a number of challenges including medication shortage, outcome of vaccination, and control strategies planning. Modeling methods that are used to simulate and predict the spread of COVID-19 include compartmental model, structured metapopulations, agent-based networks, deep learning, and complex network, with compartmental modeling as one of the most widely used methods. Compartmental model has two noteworthy features, a flexible framework that allows users to easily customize the model structure and its high adaptivity that allows well-matured approaches (e.g., Bayesian inference and mixed-effects modeling) to improve parameter estimation. We retrospectively evaluated the prediction performances of the compartmental models on the CDC COVID-19 Mathematical Modeling webpage based on data collected between August 2020 and February 2021, and subsequently discussed in detail their corresponding model enhancement. Finally, we presented examples using the compartmental models to assist policymaking. By evaluating all models in parallel, we systemically evaluated the performance and evolution of using compartmental models for COVID-19 pandemic prediction. In summary, as a 100-year-old epidemic approach, the compartmental model presents a powerful tool that is extremely adaptive and can be readily customized and implemented to address new data or emerging needs during a pandemic. Graphical Abstract

On November 30, 2021, the US Food and Drug administration (FDA) and the Center for Research on Complex Generics (CRCG) hosted a virtual public workshop titled “Establishing the Suitability of Model‐Integrated Evidence (MIE) to Demonstrate Bioequivalence for Long‐Acting Injectable and Implantable (LAI) Drug Products.” This workshop brought relevant parties from the industry, academia, and the FDA in the field of modeling and simulation to explore, identify, and recommend best practices on utilizing MIE for bioequivalence (BE) assessment of LAI products. This report summerized presentations and panel discussions for topics including challenges and opportunities in development and assessment of generic LAI products, current status of utilizing MIE, recent research progress of utilizing MIE in generic LAI products, alternative designs for BE studies of LAI products, and model validation/verification strategies associated with different types of MIE approaches.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) has presented unprecedented challenges to the generic drug development, including interruptions in bioequivalence (BE) studies. Per guidance published by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) during the COVID‐19 public health emergency, any protocol changes or alternative statistical analysis plan for COVID‐19‐interrupted BE study should be accompanied with adequate justifications and not lead to biased equivalence determination. In this study, we used a modeling and simulation approach to assess the potential impact of study outcomes when two different batches of a Reference Standard (RS) were to be used in an in vivo pharmacokinetic BE study due to the RS expiration during the COVID‐19 pandemic. Simulations were performed with hypothetical drugs under two scenarios: (1) uninterrupted study using a single batch of an RS, and (2) interrupted study using two batches of an RS. The acceptability of BE outcomes was evaluated by comparing the results obtained from interrupted studies with those from uninterrupted studies. The simulation results demonstrated that using a conventional statistical approach to evaluate BE for COVID‐19‐interrupted studies may be acceptable based on the pooled data from two batches. An alternative statistical method which includes a “batch” effect to the mixed effects model may be used when a significant “batch” effect was found in interrupted four‐way crossover studies. However, such alternative method is not applicable for interrupted two‐way crossover studies. Overall, the simulated scenarios are only for demonstration purpose, the acceptability of BE outcomes for the COVID19‐interrupted studies could be case‐specific.