Background As the number of older people globally increases, health systems need to be reformed to meet the growing need for medical resources. A few previous studies reported varying health impacts of population ageing, but they focused only on limited countries and diseases. We comprehensively quantify the impact of population ageing on mortality for 195 countries/territories and 169 causes of death. Methods and findings Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017 (GBD 2017), this study derived the total number of deaths and population size for each year from 1990 to 2017. A decomposition method was used to attribute changes in total deaths to population growth, population ageing, and mortality change between 1990 and each subsequent year from 1991 through 2017, for 195 countries/territories and for countries grouped by World Bank economic development level. For countries with increases in deaths related to population ageing, we calculated the ratio of deaths attributed to mortality change to those attributed to population ageing. The proportion of people aged 65 years and older increased globally from 6.1% to 8.8%, and the number of global deaths increased by 9 million, between 1990 and 2017. Compared to 1990, 12 million additional global deaths in 2017 were associated with population ageing, corresponding to 27.9% of total global deaths. Population ageing was associated with increases in deaths in high-, upper-middle-, and lower-middle-income countries but not in low-income countries. The proportions of deaths attributed to population ageing in 195 countries/territories ranged from −43.9% to 117.4% for males and −30.1% to 153.5% for females. The 2 largest contributions of population ageing to disease-specific deaths globally between 1990 and 2017 were for ischemic heart disease (3.2 million) and stroke

BackgroundTraumatic brain injury (TBI) is a significant global public health problem, but has received minimal attention from researchers and policy-makers in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Epidemiological evidence of TBI morbidity and mortality is absent at the national level for most LMICs, including China. Using data from China’s Disease Surveillance Points (DSPs) system, we conducted a population-based longitudinal analysis to examine TBI mortality, and mortality differences by sex, age group, location (urban/rural), and external cause of injury, from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2013 in China.Method and findingsMortality data came from the national DSPs system of China, which has coded deaths using the International Classification of Diseases–10th Revision (ICD-10) since 2004. Crude and age-standardized mortality with 95% CIs were estimated using the census population in 2010 as a reference population. The Cochran–Armitage trend test was used to examine the significance of trends in mortality from 2006 to 2013. Negative binomial models were used to examine the associations of TBI mortality with location, sex, and age group. Subgroup analysis was performed by external cause of TBI. We found the following: (1) Age-adjusted TBI mortality increased from 13.23 per 100,000 population in 2006 to 17.06 per 100,000 population in 2008 and then began to fall slightly. In 2013, age-adjusted TBI mortality was 12.99 per 100,000 population (SE = 0.13). (2) Compared to females and urban residents, males and rural residents had higher TBI mortality risk, with adjusted mortality rate ratios of 2.57 and 1.71, respectively. TBI mortality increased substantially with older age. (3) Motor vehicle crashes and falls were the 2 leading causes of TBI mortality between 2006 and 2013. TBI deaths from motor vehicle crashes in children aged 0–14 years and adults aged 65 years and older were most often in pedestrians, and motorcyclists were the first or second leading category of road user for the other age groups. (4) TBI mortality attributed to motor vehicle crashes increased for pedestrians and motorcyclists in all 7 age groups from 2006 to 2013. Our analysis was limited by the availability and quality of data in the DSPs dataset, including lack of injury-related socio-economic factors, policy factors, and individual and behavioral factors. The dataset also may be incomplete in TBI death recording or contain misclassification of mortality data.ConclusionsTBI constitutes a serious public health threat in China. Further studies should explore the reasons for the particularly high risk of TBI mortality among particular populations, as well as the reasons for recent increases in certain subgroups, and should develop solutions to address these challenges. Interventions proven to work in other cultures should be introduced and implemented nationwide. Examples of these in the domain of motor vehicle crashes include policy change and enforcement of laws concerning helmet use for motorcyclists and bicyclists, car seat and booster se...

Background Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.6 is to halve the number of global deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents by 2020. We aimed to investigate progress in reducing mortality rates from road traffic injury in China from 2006 to 2016. MethodsWe obtained data from national disease surveillance points. Crude and age-standardised mortality were calculated, with SEs. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to examine and quantify trends in overall and subgroup road traffic mortality from 2006 to 2016. Subgroup analyses were done by place (urban and rural), sex, age group, geographical location (province), and road user, and by type of vehicle for motor vehicle occupant deaths.Findings In 2016 in China, crude road traffic mortality was 11·0 (SE 0·11) deaths per 100 000 population. Overall ageadjusted road traffic mortality increased from 12·6 (SE 0·03) deaths per 100 000 population in 2006 to 15·5 (0·03) deaths per 100 000 population in 2011 then decreased to 10·4 (0·03) deaths per 100 000 population in 2016. Subgroup mortality rates generally followed similar trends. Males, older adults, and rural areas consistently had higher road traffic mortality rates than did females, younger people, and urban areas. Mortality changes varied across urban and rural areas and by sex, age group, and province between 2006 and 2016, revealing large urban-rural and provincial disparities and highlighting pedestrians as the most vulnerable road users. Deaths among occupants of cars and three-wheeled motor vehicles constituted 48% and 20%, respectively, of total occupant mortality from road traffic accidents between 2006 and 2016.Interpretation Despite a substantial decrease in road traffic mortality since 2011, the SDG target to halve deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents by 2020 is unlikely to be reached in China. Systematic and sustainable efforts are needed to accelerate progress in road traffic safety in China.

Background: Falls are a major threat to older adults worldwide. Although various effective interventions have been developed, their comparative effectiveness remains unreported. Methods: A systematic review and network meta-analysis was conducted to determine the most effective interventions to prevent falls in community-dwelling adults aged 60 and over. Combined odds ratio (OR) and 95% credible interval (95% CrI) were calculated. Results: A total of 49 trials involving 27,740 participants and 9271 fallers were included. Compared to usual care, multifactorial interventions (MFI) demonstrated the greatest efficacy (OR: 0.64, 95% CrI: 0.53 to 0.77) followed by interventions combining education and exercise (EDU + EXC) (OR: 0.65, 95% CrI: 0.38 to 1.00) and interventions combining exercise and hazard assessment and modification (EXC + HAM) (OR: 0.66, 95% CrI: 0.40 to 1.04). The effect of medical care performed the worst (OR: 1.02, 95% CrI: 0.78 to 1.34). Model fit was good, inconsistency was low, and publication bias was considered absent. The overall quality of included trials was high. The pooled odds ratios and ranking probabilities remained relatively stable across all sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: MFI and exercise appear to be effective to reduce falls among older adults, and should be considered first as service delivery options. Further investigation is necessary to verify effectiveness and suitableness of the strategies to at-risk populations.

Background App-based interventions have the potential to reduce child injury in countries with limited prevention resources, but their effectiveness has not been rigorously examined. Objective This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of an app-based intervention for caregivers of preschoolers to prevent unintentional injury among Chinese preschoolers. Methods A 6-month cluster randomized controlled trial was conducted from December 2017 to June 2018. Recruitment was conducted through preschools, which were randomly allocated to either the control group (ie, app-based parenting education excluding unintentional injury prevention) or the intervention group (ie, app-based parenting education including unintentional injury prevention). A total of 2920 caregivers of preschoolers aged 3-6 years from 20 preschools in Changsha, China, were recruited offline through the schools. The primary outcome was unintentional injury incidences among preschoolers in the past 3 months; this measure was assessed through an online caregiver-report at the baseline visit and at 3-month and 6-month follow-up visits. Secondary outcome measures included caregivers’ self-reported attitudes and behaviors concerning child supervision during the last week. Generalized estimating equations (GEEs) were used to assess the effectiveness of the app-based intervention on responses at 3 and 6 months after adjusting for sociodemographic variables, baseline level of the outcome variable, and engagement with interventions in the assigned group. All analyses were intention-to-treat. A per-protocol sensitivity analysis was also conducted. Results In total, 1980 of the 2920 caregivers completed the study. The mean age of participants was 32.0 years (SD 5.5) and 68.99% (1366/1980) of them were female. During the 6-month follow-up visit, unintentional injury incidence did not change significantly in either group: incidence in the intervention group went from 8.76% (94/1073) to 8.11% (87/1073), P=.59; incidence in the control group went from 9.4% (85/907) to 7.5% (69/907), P=.15. The changes did not differ between the groups (odds ratio [OR] 1.14, 95% CI 0.80-1.62). Changes in the average score in attitude concerning unintentional injury prevention were also similar between the groups (B .05, 95% CI -0.03 to 0.13). Changes in unintentional injury prevention behaviors were greater in the intervention group than in the control group after the intervention (B .87, 95% CI 0.33-1.42). Analyses of individual injury prevention behaviors showed that the intervention reduced three risky behaviors: unsafe feeding of children (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.60-0.89); incorrectly placing children in cars (OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.57-0.93); and allowing children to ride bicycles, electric bicycles, or motorcycles unsupervised (OR 0.80, 95% CI 0.64-0.99). The intervention also improved scores on three safety-focused behaviors: testing water temperature before giving children a bath (OR 1.26, 95% CI 1.05-1.52); properly storing sharp objects (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.01-1.52); and safely storing medicines, detergents, and pesticides (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.02-1.51). Conclusions The app-based intervention did not reduce unintentional injury incidence among preschoolers but significantly improved caregivers’ safety behaviors. This app-based intervention approach to improve caregiver behaviors surrounding child injury risk offers promise to be modified and ultimately disseminated broadly. Trial Registration Chinese Clinical Trial Registry ChiCTR-IOR-17010438; http://www.chictr.org.cn/showproj.aspx?proj=17376 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/75jt17X84) International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID) RR2-10.1186/s12889-018-5790-1