This article assesses the official music scene in Pyongyang over a span of five dramatic years, surveying how changes in the field of music from 2009 to 2014 mirrored and in some cases presaged North Korean dynastic succession and political consolidation. The article draws upon a new abundance of performance data on North Korean musical groups, data which we argue is important but has largely been ignored or mischaracterized heretofore. The central crisis dealt with in the article is the decline and demise of Kim Jongil, the architect of North Korea's musical culture. In his final years, Kim Jong-il assented to the creation of a new leading musical group known as the Unhasu Orchestra, promoted a song ("Footsteps") about his son's succession, and was commemorated as a passing figure even while still alive (in the film Wish). This article reads the transition of power to the young Kim Jong-un in musical terms, revealing churn in the cultural sector. The text therefore advances questions about the role of music in the North Korean society generally, and will appeal to readers interested in North Korean culture, as well as to scholars of music and politics in general.

The Ŭnhasu Orchestra was a major North Korean ensemble in 2009–2013. It was established by Kim Jong Il (Kim Chŏng’il, 김정일) and was composed of young musicians and singers of both genders, several of them having studied in foreign higher educational institutions in countries like Austria, Italy, Russia and China. Its members represented the core class of the North Korean society. It was ostensibly meant to display the high quality of North Korean art and engage at this level also in international cultural diplomacy, both in terms of physical visits, and in terms of DVD and internet publishing. In addition to domestic concerts, the Ŭnhasu Orchestra performed with visiting Russian artists, and gave a concert in Paris in 2012. The Ŭnhasu Orchestra exemplifies also the problems with regime transition in North Korea. It was so closely tied with the Kim Jong Il regime that the change at the end of 2011 to the Kim Jong Un (Kim Chŏng’un, 김정은) regime did not proceed altogether smoothly. In August 2013 it was disbanded rather abruptly, causing an international uproar, and signalling the beginning of a wave of other purges leading up to the highest leadership levels. The article attempts to shed light on the nature of the Orchestra as a North Korean cultural phenomenon and the reasons for its sudden ending, trying to dispel some of the disinformation surrounding the event.

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Generalized linear latent variable models (GLLVMs) are a class of methods for analyzing multi-response data which has gained considerable popularity in recent years, e.g., in the analysis of multivariate abundance data in ecology. One of the main features of GLLVMs is their capacity to handle a variety of responses types, such as (overdispersed) counts, binomial and (semi-)continuous responses, and proportions data. On the other hand, the inclusion of unobserved latent variables poses a major computational challenge, as the resulting marginal likelihood function involves an intractable integral for non-normally distributed responses. This has spurred research into a number of approximation methods to overcome this integral, with a recent and particularly computationally scalable one being that of variational approximations (VA). However, research into the use of VA for GLLVMs has been hampered by the fact that fully closed-form variational lower bounds have only been obtained for certain combinations of response distributions and link functions. In this article, we propose an extended variational approximations (EVA) approach which widens the set of VA-applicable GLLVMs dramatically. EVA draws inspiration from the underlying idea behind the Laplace approximation: by replacing the complete-data likelihood function with its second order Taylor approximation about the mean of the variational distribution, we can obtain a fully closed-form approximation to the marginal likelihood of the GLLVM for any response type and link function. Through simulation studies and an application to a species community of testate amoebae, we demonstrate how EVA results in a “universal” approach to fitting GLLVMs, which remains competitive in terms of estimation and inferential performance relative to both standard VA (where any intractable integrals are either overcome through reparametrization or quadrature) and a Laplace approximation approach, while being computationally more scalable than both methods in practice.