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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in AbstractIn order to estimate the economic costs of climate change for Tunisia, this paper uses a combination of biophysical and economic models. In addition, the paper draws on the literature to complement the quantitative analysis with policy recommendations on how to adapt to the changing climate. The results bear out the expectation that climate change has a negative but weak overall effect on the Tunisian economy. Decomposing the global and local effects shows that global climate change may benefit the agricultural sector since higher world market prices for agricultural commodities are likely to stimulate export expansion and import substitution. Locally felt climate change, however, is likely to hurt the agricultural sector as lower yields reduce factor productivities lead to lower incomes and higher food prices. The combined local and global effects are projected to be mostly negative and the costs will have to be carried mainly by urban and richer households. From a policy perspective, the results suggest that Tunisia should try to maximize the benefits from rising global agricultural prices and to minimize (or reverse) declining crop yields at home. JEL: O5, O13, D13, C68

Tables T1. Overview of selected Millennium Development Goal indicators and global country ranking (latest estimates) 5-6 T2. Child undernutrition, economic growth, and nutrition-growth arc elasticities in the 1990s and 2000s T3. Estimated coefficients (elasticities) of the nutrition-growth models: Arab-TI region vs. rest of the world T4. Public spending by sector, 2007 (%) T5. Annual growth rate of public spending per capita, 2000-07 (%) T6. Estimated coefficients (short-run elasticities) of the growth-public spending models: Arab-TI region vs. rest of the world TA1.1. Composition of the food-insecurity risk indicator and country ranking in Arab-TI countries TA2.1. Definition of public spending items (according to IMF Government Finance Statistics classification) TA3.1. Conflicts in the Arab-TI region BEYOND THE ARAB AWAKENING v Figures & Box F1a and Ib. Relationships between GDP per capita growth and the incidence of poverty and prevalence of child undernutrition in the world, the Arab-TI region, and selected countries F2. Conceptual framework linking food security and poverty to economic and social development F3. Fiscal and current account balances in Arab-TI countries, 2007-10 average F4. The risk of food insecurity in Arab-TI countries F5. Structural transformation in Egypt and Turkey F6. The role of structural change in economic growth in Turkey F7. Share of income from different sources in Syria and Egypt F8. Public satisfaction with government poverty-reduction efforts campared with government spending on subsidies FA1.1. Macro food-insecurity map: Arab-TI countries FA1.2. Micro food-insecurity map: Arab-TI countries FA3.1. Water stress and economic growth outlook in Arab-TI countries FA3.2. Projection of population growth and urbanization in Arab-TI countries until 2025 FA3.3. Rural population in perspective in Arab-TI countries B1. Methodology of Country Food-Insecurity Risk Typology BEYOND THE ARAB AWAKENING vi Acronyms and Abbreviations AHDR Arab Human Development Report Arab-TI Arab League Countries plus Turkey and Iran FS Food secure FSC Food-security challenged GDP Gross domestic product GMM Generalized methods-of-moments estimator LMIC Low-to middle-income country MDG Millennium Development Goal MENA Middle East and North Africa NENA Near East and North Africa SPEED Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development UAE United Arab Emirates WDI World Development Indicators BEYOND THE ARAB AWAKENING vii Acknowledgments T his report has been made possible by financial support from the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). We thank Abdelhamid Abdouli, Mylene Kherallah, Nadim Khouri, and Isabella Mazzarella of IFAD for their outstanding support and excellent comments at various stages of the process. This report has also greatly benefited from many people's comments and suggestions on various occasions, including at the following seminars:

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