OBJECTIVES To determine the effect of home‐based primary care (HBPC) for frail older adults, operating under Independence at Home (IAH) incentive alignment on long‐term institutionalization (LTI). DESIGN Case‐cohort study using HBPC site, Medicare administrative data, and National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) benchmarks. SETTING Three IAH‐participating HBPC sites in Philadelphia, PA, Richmond, VA, and Washington, DC. PARTICIPANTS HBPC integrated with long‐term services and supports (LTSS) cases (n = 721) and concurrent comparison groups (HBPC not integrated with LTSS: n = 82; no HBPC: n = 573). Cases were eligible if enrolled at one of the three HBPC sites from 2012 to 2015. Independence at Home‐qualified (IAH‐Q) concurrent comparison groups were selected from Philadelphia, PA; Richmond, VA; and Washington, DC. INTERVENTION HBPC integrated with LTSS under IAH demonstration incentives. MEASUREMENTS Measurements include LTI rate and mortality rates, community survival, and LTSS costs. RESULTS The LTI rate in the three HBPC programs (8%) was less than that of both concurrent comparison groups (IAH‐Q beneficiaries not receiving HBPC, 16%; patients receiving HBPC but not in the IAH demonstration practices, 18%). LTI for patients at each HBPC site declined over the three study years (9.9%, 9.4%, and 4.9%, respectively). Costs of home‐ and community‐based services (HCBS) were nonsignificantly lower among integrated care patients ($2151/mo; observed‐to‐expected ratio = .88 [.68‐1.09]). LTI‐free survival in the IAH HBPC group was 85% at 36 months, extending average community residence by 12.8 months compared with IAH‐q participants in NHATS. CONCLUSION HBPC integrated with long‐term support services delays LTI in frail, medically complex Medicare beneficiaries without increasing HCBS costs.

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The Independence at Home (IAH) Demonstration Year 2 results confirmed that the first-year savings were 10 times as great as those of the pioneer accountable care organizations during their initial 2 years. We update projected savings from nationwide conversion of the IAH demonstration, incorporating Year 2 results and improving attribution of IAH-qualified (IAH-Q) Medicare beneficiaries to home-based primary care (HBPC) practices. Applying IAH qualifying criteria to beneficiaries in the Medicare 5% claims file, the effect of expanding HBPC to the 2.4 million IAH-Q beneficiaries is projected using various growth rates. Total 10-year system-wide savings (accounting for IAH implementation but before excluding shared savings) range from $2.6 billion to $27.8 billion, depending on how many beneficiaries receive HBPC on conversion to a Medicare benefit, mix of clinical practice success, and growth rate of IAH practices. Net projected savings to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) after routine billing for IAH services and distribution of shared savings ranges from $1.8 billion to $10.9 billion. If aligning IAH with other advanced alternative payment models achieved at least 35% penetration of the eligible population in 10 years, CMS savings would exceed savings with the current IAH design and HBPC growth rate. If the demonstration were simply extended 2 years with a beneficiary cap of 50,000 instead of 15,000 (as currently proposed), CMS would save an additional $46 million. The recent extension of IAH, a promising person-centered CMS program for managing medically complex and frail elderly adults, offers the chance to evaluate modifications to promote more rapid HBPC growth.