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BackgroundTraffic offences have been considered an important predictor of crash involvement, and have often been used as a proxy safety variable for crashes. However the association between crashes and offences has never been meta-analysed and the population effect size never established. Research is yet to determine the extent to which this relationship may be spuriously inflated through systematic measurement error, with obvious implications for researchers endeavouring to accurately identify salient factors predictive of crashes.Methodology and Principal FindingsStudies yielding a correlation between crashes and traffic offences were collated and a meta-analysis of 144 effects drawn from 99 road safety studies conducted. Potential impact of factors such as age, time period, crash and offence rates, crash severity and data type, sourced from either self-report surveys or archival records, were considered and discussed. After weighting for sample size, an average correlation of r = .18 was observed over the mean time period of 3.2 years. Evidence emerged suggesting the strength of this correlation is decreasing over time. Stronger correlations between crashes and offences were generally found in studies involving younger drivers. Consistent with common method variance effects, a within country analysis found stronger effect sizes in self-reported data even controlling for crash mean.SignificanceThe effectiveness of traffic offences as a proxy for crashes may be limited. Inclusion of elements such as independently validated crash and offence histories or accurate measures of exposure to the road would facilitate a better understanding of the factors that influence crash involvement.

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Common method variance (CMV) has received little attention within the field of road safety research despite a heavy reliance on self-report data. Two surveys were completed by 214 motorists over a two-month period, allowing associations between social desirability and key road safety variables and relationships between scales across the two survey waves to be examined. Social desirability was found to have a strong negative correlation with the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) sub-scales as well as age, but not with crashes and offences. Drivers who scored higher on the social desirability scale were also less likely to report aberrant driving behaviours as measured by the DBQ. Controlling for social desirability did not substantially alter the predictive relationship between the DBQ and the crash and offences variables. The strength of the correlations within and between the two waves were also compared with the results strongly suggesting that effects associated with CMV were present. Identification of CMV would be enhanced by the replication of this study with a larger sample size and comparing self-report data with official sources.