[1] A global set of present plate boundaries on the Earth is presented in digital form. Most come from sources in the literature. A few boundaries are newly interpreted from topography, volcanism, and/or seismicity, taking into account relative plate velocities from magnetic anomalies, moment tensor solutions, and/or geodesy. In addition to the 14 large plates whose motion was described by the NUVEL-1A poles (Africa, Antarctica, Arabia, Australia, Caribbean, Cocos, Eurasia, India, Juan de Fuca, Nazca, North America, Pacific, Philippine Sea, South America), model PB2002 includes 38 small plates (Okhotsk, Amur, Yangtze, Okinawa, Sunda, Burma, Molucca Sea, Banda Sea, Timor, Birds Head, Maoke, Caroline, Mariana, North Bismarck, Manus, South Bismarck, Solomon Sea, Woodlark, New Hebrides, Conway Reef, Balmoral Reef, Futuna, Niuafo'ou, Tonga, Kermadec, Rivera, Galapagos, Easter, Juan Fernandez, Panama, North Andes, Altiplano, Shetland, Scotia, Sandwich, Aegean Sea, Anatolia, Somalia), for a total of 52 plates. No attempt is made to divide the Alps-Persia-Tibet mountain belt, the Philippine Islands, the Peruvian Andes, the Sierras Pampeanas, or the California-Nevada zone of dextral transtension into plates; instead, they are designated as ''orogens'' in which this plate model is not expected to be accurate. The cumulative-number/area distribution for this model follows a power law for plates with areas between 0.002 and 1 steradian. Departure from this scaling at the small-plate end suggests that future work is very likely to define more very small plates within the orogens. The model is presented in four digital files: a set of plate boundary segments; a set of plate outlines; a set of outlines of the orogens; and a table of characteristics of each digitization step along plate boundaries, including estimated relative velocity vector and classification into one of 7 types (continental convergence zone, continental transform fault, continental rift, oceanic spreading ridge, oceanic transform fault, oceanic convergent boundary, subduction zone). Total length, mean velocity, and total rate of area production/destruction are computed for each class; the global rate of area production and destruction is 0.108 m 2 /s, which is higher than in previous models because of the incorporation of back-arc spreading.

Continental lithosphere is in unstable mechanical equilibrium because its mantle layer is denser than the asthenosphere. If any process such as cracking, slumping, or plume erosion initially provided an elongated conduit connecting the underlying asthenosphere with the base of the continental crust, the dense lithospheric boundary layer could peel away from the crust and sink. An analytic model for sinking velocities at the critical initial time shows that instability occurs if the effective viscosities of the lower continental crust and the rising asthenosphere are no more than 1019 P. Analogies to subduction suggest that the mature instability would grow laterally at plate tectonic velocities; however, it would be almost aseismic. Loss of the cold mantle boundary layer would cause uplift, increased heat flow, reduced seismic velocities, and perhaps emplacement of basalt flows, mantle diatremes, and granodiorite sills. A one‐dimensional thermal model of the formation of a new boundary layer predicts a half life of about 3×107 years for this thermal anomaly and uplift. As an example, the geologic and geophysical data from the Colorado Plateau are shown to be consistent with the hypothesis that it was uplifted by a delamination event 30 m.y. ago and perhaps a second event about 5 m.y. ago.

The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP14) present the time-independent component of the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3), which provides authoritative estimates of the magnitude, location, and time-averaged frequency of potentially damaging earthquakes in California. The primary achievements have been to relax fault segmentation and include multifault ruptures, both limitations of UCERF2. The rates of all earthquakes are solved for simultaneously and from a broader range of data, using a system-level inversion that is both conceptually simple and extensible. The inverse problem is large and underdetermined, so a range of models is sampled using an efficient simulated annealing algorithm. The approach is more derivative than prescriptive (e.g., magnitude-frequency distributions are no longer assumed), so new analysis tools were developed for exploring solutions. Epistemic uncertainties were also accounted for using 1440 alternative logic-tree branches, necessitating access to supercomputers. The most influential uncertainties include alternative deformation models (fault slip rates), a new smoothed seismicity algorithm, alternative values for the total rate of M w ≥ 5 events, and different scaling relationships, virtually all of which are new. As a notable first, three deformation models are based on kinematically consistent inversions of geodetic and geologic data, also providing slip-rate constraints on faults previously excluded due to lack of geologic data. The grand inversion constitutes a system-level framework for testing hypotheses and balancing the influence of different experts. For example, we demonstrate serious challenges with the Gutenberg-Richter hypothesis for individual faults. UCERF3 is still an approximation of the system, however, and the range of models is limited (e.g., constrained to stay close to UCERF2). Nevertheless, UCERF3 removes the apparent UCERF2 overprediction of M 6.5-7 earthquake rates and also includes types of multifault ruptures seen in nature. Although UCERF3 fits the data better than UCERF2 overall, there may be areas that warrant further site-specific investigation. Supporting products may be of general interest, and we list key assumptions and avenues for future model improvements. Manuscript OrganizationBecause of manuscript length and model complexity, we begin with an outline of this report to help readers navigate the various sections:

Where there is isostasy, the rocks of the lower continental crust are subject to an effective lateral pressure gradient equal to the gradient of topographic load, whether compensation is in crustal roots or in the mantle. The result is a Poiseuille flow (planar channel flow) in the weak lower crust, which removes crust from under mountains and smooths and levels the topography. Assuming cubic power law creep, the flux of crust is proportional to the third power of the topographic gradient, to the usual Arrhenius term, to the tenth power of the absolute temperature of the lower crust, and to the negative fifth power of the geothermal gradient. The result is that any initial condition with an isolated high tends eventually toward a state where the topography is pancake shaped, with a flat central plateau and steeper flanks spreading outward. When adjacent “pancakes” merge, most of the relief is eliminated. Flow may either roughen or smooth the Moho, depending on whether there are lateral density contrasts in the mantle lithosphere or not. Although it is difficult to find analytic solutions for this evolution, it is easily simulated numerically. Using various published flow laws for plausible lower crustal rocks, lateral extrusion is shown to be insignificant under the oceans, marginally significant under shields and platforms, important under elevated plains, and dominant beneath high plateaus and/or hot, delaminated regions. In particular, the Basin and Range province of the western United States cannot maintain short‐wavelength (100 km) Moho relief of more than 1 km for times greater than 10–20 m.y. at most. If the Tibetan Plateau of China has been delaminated, as recently suggested, then it may flatten even faster, reducing 100‐km‐wavelength topographic features to 200 m relief in no more than 0.03–0.13 m.y., and leaving only features with wavelengths over 400 km at the present. Therefore the lower crust of Tibet may resemble a hydraulic reservoir, as previously suggested. Because the flatness of the Moho is self‐maintained in these regions, information on past tectonics is continually lost, and the present Moho shape cannot be used to balance cross sections for times in the past. The flatness of the Moho today is not a constraint on the mechanisms of extension or shortening in these regions, nor is it evidence for underplating by intrusions. It also follows that very intense and inhomogeneous dilational strains may have occurred locally, as in the metamorphic core complexes of the Basin and Range province.