Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the quality of the credit process is sensitive to reaching a particular threshold level of non-performing loans (NPLs) and, more importantly, whether higher NPLs ratios could make the monitoring activity ineffective. Design/methodology/approach The empirical design is composed of two steps: in the first step, the authors introduce a monitoring performance indicator (MPI) of the credit process by combining the non-parametric technique Data Envelopment Analysis with some financial ratios adopted as input and output variables. As second step, the authors apply a threshold panel regression model to a sample of 298 Italian banks, over the time period 2006–2014, and the authors investigate whether the quality of the credit process is sensitive to reaching a particular threshold level of NPLs. Findings This paper finds that, first, when the NPLs ratio remains below the threshold value estimated endogenously, an increase in the quality of monitoring has a positive impact on the NPLs ratio. Second, if the NPLs ratio exceeds the estimated threshold, the relationship between the NPLs ratio and quality of monitoring assumes a positive value and is statistically significant. Research limitations/implications Due to the lack of data, the investigation of NPLs in the Italian industry across loan types combined with the monitoring effort by banks management was not possible. The authors plan to investigate this topic in future studies. Practical implications The identification of the threshold has a double operational valence. The first regards the Supervisory Authority, the threshold approach could be used as an early warning in order to introduce active control strategies based on the additional information requested or by on-site inspections. The second implication is highlighted in relation to the individual banks, the monitoring of credit control quality, if objective and comparable, could facilitate the emergence of best practices among banks. Social implications A high NPLs ratio requires greater loan provisions, which reduces capital resources available for lending, and dents bank profitability. Moreover, structural weaknesses on banks’ balance sheets still persist particularly in relation to the inadequate internal governance structures. This means that bank management must able to recognise in advance early warning signals by providing prudent measurement together with an in-depth valuation of loans portfolio. Originality/value The originality of the paper is twofold: the authors introduce a new proxy of credit monitoring, called MPI; the authors provide an empirical proof of the Diamond’s (1991) economic intuition: for riskier borrowers, the monitoring activity is an inappropriate instrument depending on the bad reputational quality of borrowers.

The credit and liquidity risks of most African MFIs are strongly affected by drought shocks and, even though some traditional asset–liability management strategies are somewhat useful for MFIs to deal with drought risk, innovative risk‐transfer mechanisms are required.

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PurposeThe paper aims to disentangle the physiological credit risk from the credit risk coming from the inefficient screening and monitoring management process. The analysis is conducted on a sample of 338 Italian banks–56 joint-stock banks (SpA), 23 cooperative banks (Popolari) and 259 mutual banks (BCCs)–over the time period 2006–2017.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the maximum likelihood method to estimate the efficient frontier, as a set of best management credit practices, which minimises the credit risk defined on the basis of the level of loans granted, the technical structure of the loan portfolio (such as credit lines, mortgages, consumer loans and other technical loan categories) and the interest rate charges.FindingsThe empirical results show that the increase in non-performing loans (NPLs) is related both to the severe and protracted recession in Italy, which significantly reduced borrowers' capacity to service their debt, and to other factors, such as banks' lending monitoring policies with limited capacity to work-out defaulted loans.Originality/valueThe authors propose a new approach to the study of the performance of the credit process. With the stochastic frontier, the physiological credit risk, assumed by the bank according to its lending activity and management choices, is separated from the credit risk resulting from an inefficient management of the screening and monitoring process. In addition, the authors analyse the determinants of the excess of NPLs. This aspect is considered particularly original because the scientific contributions which consider the causes of NPLs have largely focused on the level of NPLs not considering the physiological part, linked to the structure of the bank's loan portfolio and its operational strategy and therefore not compressible and in any case not attributable to mismanagement or moral hazard.

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