Preface xiüChapter 1 Introduction: The Bayesian Method, its Beneflts and Implementation 1.1The Bayes approach and its potential advantages 1.2Expressing prior uncertainty about parameters and Bayesian updating 1.3 MCMC sampling and inferences from posterior densities 1.4The main MCMC sampling algorithms 1.4.1 Gibbs sampling 1.5Convergenceof MCMCsamples 1.6Predictions from sampling: using the posterior predictive density 1.7The present book References Chapter 2 Bayesian Model Choice, Comparison and Checking

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Sum m ary. T his study discu sses variab ility in the spatial prevalen ce of suicid e and parasu icid e across sm all areas in London in relation to the social and dem ograph ic com position of their population s. The focu s is on the relative im portan ce in exp lain ing suicid al outcom es of variab les represen ting resp ectively social deprivation , psych iatric m orb idity and anom ie (or com m unity fragm entation ), and of differen tiation in the effects of these factors across sub-population s. There is stron g evid ence for such con textu al effectsÐ nam ely, varyin g effects of these socio-ec onom ic factors accord ing to geograp hical settin gÐ as w ell as for differen tial associa tion s by age grou p, sex and type of outcom e (suicid e vs parasu icid e).

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This article describes the development and validation of a test of vocabulary size and strength. The ® rst part of the article sets out the theoretical rationale for the test, and describes how the size and strength constructs have been conceptualized and operationalized. The second part of the article focusses on the process of test validation, which involved the testing of the hypotheses implicit in the test design, using both unidimensional and multifaceted Rasch analyses. Possible applications for the test include determining the status of a learner's vocabulary development as well as screening and placement. A model for administering the test in computer adaptive mode is also proposed. The study has implications both for the design and delivery of this test as well as for theories of vocabulary acquisition.