A new technique, Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC), is used to quantify errors in water quality models caused by uncertain parameters. BMC also provides estimates of parameter uncertainty as a function of observed data on model state variables. The use of Bayesian inference generates uncertainty estimates that combine prior information on parameter uncertainty with observed variation in water quality data to provide an improved estimate of model parameter and output uncertainty. It Mso combines Monte Carlo analysis with Bayesian inference to determine the ability of random selected parameter sets to simulate observed data. BMC expands upon previous studies by providing a quantitative estimate of parameter acceptabilty using the statistical likelih,'md function. The likelihood of each parameter set is employed to generate an n-dimensional hypercube describing a probability distribution of each parameter and the covariance among parameters. These distributions are utilized to estimate uncertainty in model predictions. Application of BMC to a dissolved oxygen model reduced the estimated uncertainty in model output by 72% compared with standard Monte Carlo techniques. Sixty percent of this reduction was directly attributed to consideration of covariauce between model parameters. A significant benefit of the technique is the ability to compare the reduction in total model output uncertainty corresponding to: (1) collection of more data on model state variables, and (2) laboratory or field studies to better define model processes. Limitations of the technique include computational requirements and accurate estimation of the joint probability distribution of model errors. This analysis was conducted assuming that model error is normally and independently distributed.

The influence of exposure time upon macro-invertebrate colonization on modified Hester-Dendy substrate samplers was investigated over a 60-day period. The duration of exposure affected the number of individuals, taxa and community diversity.Tlie numbers of individuals colonizing the samplers reached a maximum after 39 days and then began to decrease, due to the emergence of adult insects. Coefficients of variation for the four replicate samples retrieved each sampling day fluctuated extensively throughout the study. No tendencies toward increasing or decreasing coefficients of variation were noted with increasing time of sampler exposure.The number of taxa colonizing the samplers increased throughout the study period-The community diversity index was calculated for each sampling day and this function tended to increase throughout the same period. Tliis supports the hypothesis thai an exposure period of 6 weeks, as recommended by the United States Environmental Protection Agency, may not always provide adequate opportunity for a truly representative community of macro-invertebrates to colonize multiplate samplers.Many of the taxa were collected in quite substantial proportions after periods of absence or extreme sparseness. This is attributed to the grov^^h of periphyton and the collection of other materials that created food and new habitats suitable for the colonization of new taxa.

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The relative sensitivity of the Microtox assay is closely related to the type of toxicant, and hence its utility in biomonitoring effluents is better evaluated on a case-by-case basis. The Microtox assay, employing the marine bacterium Vibrio fischeri, was evaluated for its applicability in monitoring metal plating wastewater for toxicity. The results of the Microtox assay after 5, 15, and 30 min of exposure, were compared with data obtained from conventional whole effluent toxicity testing (WET) methods that employed Daphnia magna, Ceriodaphnia dubia, and the fathead minnow (Pimephales promelas). The Microtox assay produced notably comparable EC50 values to the LC50 values of the acute fathead minnow toxicity test (< 0.5 order of difference). The Spearman's rank correlation analyses showed that the bacterial assay, regardless of exposure duration, correlated better with the acute fish than the daphnid results (p < 0.05). These observations were consistent to other studies conducted with inorganic contaminants. The relative sensitivity of the 30-min Microtox assay was within the range of the two frequently used acute daphnid/fish toxicity tests. In conclusion, the Microtox assay correlated well with the acute fathead minnow data and is well suited for toxicity monitoring for these types of industrial wastes.