Nyanza Gulf is a large shallow embayment connected to Lake Victoria by the deep narrow Rusinga Channel. Between December 2000 and May 2002 the gradient of nutrients along the axis of Nyanza gulf into the main lake was determined. Nutrient concentrations in the gulf were found to be different from those in the main lake with phosphorus fractions, SRP and TP being significantly higher in the main lake than in the gulf. Well oxygenated conditions in the gulf keep the PO 4 -P strongly bound to mineral particles whereas in the main lake, where deeper depths allows for development of anoxia, it is released into solution. The low TN:TP molar ratio in the gulf and in the main lake indicates many algae may be N-limited and heterocystous N-fixing cyanobacteria may be favored. However, the high mineral turbidity in the gulf reduces light availability and hence limits algal abundance resulting in easily measure concentrations of mineral nutrients and in particular high levels of dissolved reactive silica. The gulf is a net source of dissolved silica and total nitrogen to the main lake while the main lake is potentially a source of P to the gulf depending on interchange through Rusinga Channel.

Different phosphorus fractions and metal element composition of surficial sediments were measured on three occasions in 2005 and 2006 along a transect between Nyanza Gulf and offshore Lake Victoria, in order to assess the potential for sediments to contribute to the water column P concentrations in Lake Victoria. Total phosphorus (TP), apatite phosphorus (AP), inorganic phosphorus (IP) and organic phosphorus (OP) increased in sediments along the gulf towards the main lake while the non-apatite inorganic phosphorus (NAIP) increases were less defined. The longitudinal gradient of sediment TP and its fractions in Nyanza Gulf is a result of high rates of terrigenous input and resuspension and transport of the light, phosphorus rich inorganic and organic matter towards the main lake. TP in the sediment ranged from 812.7 to 1,738 mg/kg dry weight (DW) and was highest in the Rusinga Channel, the exchange zone between the gulf and the main lake. AP was the most important TP fraction, contributing between 35 and 57.3% of TP. Ca content in the sediment was strongly associated with TP and AP in the sediment (r 2 = 0.92 and 0.98, respectively) in the gulf and the channel, indicating the importance of apatite in controlling P availability in these zones. In the gulf and the Rusinga Channel, the less bioavailable apatite phosphorus dominated, whereas in the deeper main lake OP was the major fraction illustrating the importance of anaerobic release of P from sediments and acceleration of internal P loading in the main lake.

Background Anthrax is an important zoonotic disease in Kenya associated with high animal and public health burden and widespread socio-economic impacts. The disease occurs in sporadic outbreaks that involve livestock, wildlife, and humans, but knowledge on factors that affect the geographic distribution of these outbreaks is limited, challenging public health intervention planning. Methods Anthrax surveillance data reported in southern Kenya from 2011 to 2017 were modeled using a boosted regression trees (BRT) framework. An ensemble of 100 BRT experiments was developed using a variable set of 18 environmental covariates and 69 unique anthrax locations. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves. Results Cattle density, rainfall of wettest month, soil clay content, soil pH, soil organic carbon, length of longest dry season, vegetation index, temperature seasonality, in order, were identified as key variables for predicting environmental suitability for anthrax in the region. BRTs performed well with a mean AUC of 0.8. Areas highly suitable for anthrax were predicted predominantly in the southwestern region around the shared Kenya-Tanzania border and a belt through the regions and highlands in central Kenya. These suitable regions extend westwards to cover large areas in western highlands and the western regions around Lake Victoria and bordering Uganda. The entire eastern and lower-eastern regions towards the coastal region were predicted to have lower suitability for anthrax. Conclusion These modeling efforts identified areas of anthrax suitability across southern Kenya, including high and medium agricultural potential regions and wildlife parks, important for tourism and foreign exchange. These predictions are useful for policy makers in designing targeted surveillance and/or control interventions in Kenya. We thank the staff of Directorate of Veterinary Services under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries, for collecting and providing the anthrax historical occurrence data.

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